LAL
NYK
Los Angeles Lakers @ New York Knicks
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
NYKNew York Knicks
56% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 56% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Knicks can win
- The Knicks' shooting (55.6% eFG%, 5th in the NBA) meets a Lakers defense that ranks 20th.
- The Knicks' offense (116.4 points per 100 possessions, 3rd in the NBA) meets a Lakers defense that ranks 19th.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Knicks 3rd (+7.6), Lakers 13th (+1.5).
- Home court: the Knicks play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Simulation: the Knicks win 5,550 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why Knicks may not
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Lakers +9.6, Knicks +0.2.
- Upset odds: the Lakers win 4,450 of 10,000 simulations (44%). A 56% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- The Lakers' shooting (57.2% eFG%, 1st in the NBA) meets a Knicks defense that ranks 7th.
- Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Lakers 2nd (0.25), Knicks 25th (0.19).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Knicks lose by 15 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | NYK -1.6 |
| Total points | n/a | 224.3 |
| Win chance | LAL n/a · NYK n/a | LAL 44% · NYK 56% |
| Fair moneyline | LAL +125 · NYK -125 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Knicks 113, Lakers 111.
- 80% of simulations land between Lakers by 15 and Knicks by 19.
Side by side
| LAL | NYK | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 2-3 |
| +1.5 13 | Net rating | +7.6 3 |
| 114.7 6 | Offensive rating | 116.4 3 |
| 113.2 19 | Defensive rating | 108.7 4 |
| 57.2% 1 | Effective FG% | 55.6% 5 |
| 55.2% 20 | Opponent eFG% | 53.3% 7 |
| 14.9 22 | Turnovers per 100 | 13.7 9 |
| 24.2% 21 | Offensive rebound % | 29.3% 5 |
| 36.3% 9 | 3-point % | 37.5% 3 |
| 100.5 23 | Pace | 99.8 28 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-08 | 2025-26 | NYK 97 @ LAL 110 | LAL |
| 2026-02-01 | 2025-26 | LAL 100 @ NYK 112 | NYK |
| 2025-03-06 | 2024-25 | NYK 109 @ LAL 113 | LAL |
| 2025-02-01 | 2024-25 | LAL 128 @ NYK 112 | LAL |
| 2024-02-03 | 2023-24 | LAL 113 @ NYK 105 | LAL |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works