LAL
OKC
Los Angeles Lakers @ Oklahoma City Thunder
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
OKCOklahoma City Thunder
58% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 58% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Thunder can win
- The Thunder' shooting (55.6% eFG%, 6th in the NBA) meets a Lakers defense that ranks 20th.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Thunder 1st (+10.0), Lakers 13th (+1.5).
- The Thunder' offense (115.4 points per 100 possessions, 4th in the NBA) meets a Lakers defense that ranks 19th.
- Simulation: the Thunder win 5,800 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home court: the Thunder play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
Disadvantages Why Thunder may not
- Upset odds: the Lakers win 4,200 of 10,000 simulations (42%). A 58% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Lakers +9.6, Thunder +3.6.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Thunder lose by 14 or more.
- Weak spot: the Thunder rank 27th of 30 in offensive rebounding (share of misses) (23.4%).
- Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Lakers 2nd (0.25), Thunder 14th (0.21).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | OKC -2.4 |
| Total points | n/a | 225.3 |
| Win chance | LAL n/a · OKC n/a | LAL 42% · OKC 58% |
| Fair moneyline | LAL +138 · OKC -138 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Thunder 114, Lakers 112.
- 80% of simulations land between Lakers by 14 and Thunder by 19.
Side by side
| LAL | OKC | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 4-1 |
| +1.5 13 | Net rating | +10.0 1 |
| 114.7 6 | Offensive rating | 115.4 4 |
| 113.2 19 | Defensive rating | 105.5 1 |
| 57.2% 1 | Effective FG% | 55.6% 6 |
| 55.2% 20 | Opponent eFG% | 51.8% 3 |
| 14.9 22 | Turnovers per 100 | 12.5 1 |
| 24.2% 21 | Offensive rebound % | 23.4% 27 |
| 36.3% 9 | 3-point % | 36.2% 10 |
| 100.5 23 | Pace | 102.2 18 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-11 | Playoffs | OKC 115 @ LAL 110 | OKC |
| 2026-05-09 | Playoffs | OKC 131 @ LAL 108 | OKC |
| 2026-05-07 | Playoffs | LAL 107 @ OKC 125 | OKC |
| 2026-05-05 | Playoffs | LAL 90 @ OKC 108 | OKC |
| 2026-04-07 | 2025-26 | OKC 123 @ LAL 87 | OKC |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works