LAL
PHX
Los Angeles Lakers @ Phoenix Suns
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
LALLos Angeles Lakers
62% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 62% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Lakers can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Lakers +9.6, Suns -14.3.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.6 points to the Lakers in our ratings.
- The Lakers' shooting (57.2% eFG%, 1st in the NBA) meets a Suns defense that ranks 16th.
- Simulation: the Lakers win 6,160 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 2.3 points to the Lakers in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why Lakers may not
- Upset odds: the Suns win 3,840 of 10,000 simulations (38%). A 62% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Home court: the Suns play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Suns 7th (28.7%), Lakers 21st (24.2%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Lakers lose by 13 or more.
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Suns 4th (16.0), Lakers 11th (14.7).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | LAL -4.1 |
| Total points | n/a | 228 |
| Win chance | LAL n/a · PHX n/a | LAL 62% · PHX 38% |
| Fair moneyline | LAL -161 · PHX +161 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Suns 112, Lakers 116.
- 80% of simulations land between Lakers by 20 and Suns by 13.
Side by side
| LAL | PHX | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 1-2 |
| +1.5 13 | Net rating | +0.2 16 |
| 114.7 6 | Offensive rating | 111.8 17 |
| 113.2 19 | Defensive rating | 111.6 13 |
| 57.2% 1 | Effective FG% | 53.7% 19 |
| 55.2% 20 | Opponent eFG% | 54.3% 16 |
| 14.9 22 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.5 19 |
| 24.2% 21 | Offensive rebound % | 28.7% 7 |
| 36.3% 9 | 3-point % | 35.9% 13 |
| 100.5 23 | Pace | 100.3 26 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-10 | 2025-26 | PHX 73 @ LAL 101 | LAL |
| 2026-02-26 | 2025-26 | LAL 110 @ PHX 113 | PHX |
| 2025-12-23 | 2025-26 | LAL 108 @ PHX 132 | PHX |
| 2025-12-14 | 2025-26 | LAL 116 @ PHX 114 | LAL |
| 2025-12-01 | 2025-26 | PHX 125 @ LAL 108 | PHX |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works