LAL
SAC
Los Angeles Lakers @ Sacramento Kings
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
LALLos Angeles Lakers
79% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 79% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why Lakers can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 7.8 points to the Lakers in our ratings.
- The Lakers' shooting (57.2% eFG%, 1st in the NBA) meets a Kings defense that ranks 29th.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Lakers +9.6, Kings -16.6.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 4.1 points to the Lakers in our ratings.
- Simulation: the Lakers win 7,870 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why Lakers may not
- Home court: the Kings play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Upset odds: the Kings win 2,130 of 10,000 simulations (21%). A 79% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Lakers lose by 6 or more.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Kings 14th (14.1), Lakers 22nd (14.9).
- Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Kings 14th (25.8%), Lakers 21st (24.2%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | LAL -10.3 |
| Total points | n/a | 232.6 |
| Win chance | LAL n/a · SAC n/a | LAL 79% · SAC 21% |
| Fair moneyline | LAL -370 · SAC +370 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Kings 111, Lakers 121.
- 80% of simulations land between Lakers by 26 and Kings by 6.
Side by side
| LAL | SAC | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 0-5 |
| +1.5 13 | Net rating | -10.1 29 |
| 114.7 6 | Offensive rating | 108.3 28 |
| 113.2 19 | Defensive rating | 118.5 28 |
| 57.2% 1 | Effective FG% | 52.4% 29 |
| 55.2% 20 | Opponent eFG% | 57.3% 29 |
| 14.9 22 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.1 14 |
| 24.2% 21 | Offensive rebound % | 25.8% 14 |
| 36.3% 9 | 3-point % | 33.8% 30 |
| 100.5 23 | Pace | 102.4 16 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-01 | 2025-26 | SAC 104 @ LAL 128 | LAL |
| 2026-01-12 | 2025-26 | LAL 112 @ SAC 124 | SAC |
| 2025-12-28 | 2025-26 | SAC 101 @ LAL 125 | LAL |
| 2025-10-26 | 2025-26 | LAL 127 @ SAC 120 | LAL |
| 2024-12-28 | 2024-25 | SAC 122 @ LAL 132 | LAL |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works