LAL
SAS
Los Angeles Lakers @ San Antonio Spurs
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
SASSan Antonio Spurs
62% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 62% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Spurs can win
- Simulation: the Spurs win 6,160 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Spurs 2nd (+7.7), Lakers 13th (+1.5).
- The Spurs' shooting (55.1% eFG%, 8th in the NBA) meets a Lakers defense that ranks 20th.
- The Spurs' offense (115.2 points per 100 possessions, 5th in the NBA) meets a Lakers defense that ranks 19th.
- Home court: the Spurs play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
Disadvantages Why Spurs may not
- Upset odds: the Lakers win 3,840 of 10,000 simulations (38%). A 62% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Lakers 11th (14.7), Spurs 25th (13.0).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Spurs lose by 13 or more.
- Weak spot: the Spurs rank 25th of 30 in turnovers forced per 100 possessions (13.0).
- Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Lakers 2nd (0.25), Spurs 9th (0.22).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | SAS -3.7 |
| Total points | n/a | 228.5 |
| Win chance | LAL n/a · SAS n/a | LAL 38% · SAS 62% |
| Fair moneyline | LAL +160 · SAS -160 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Spurs 116, Lakers 113.
- 80% of simulations land between Lakers by 13 and Spurs by 20.
Side by side
| LAL | SAS | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 3-2 |
| +1.5 13 | Net rating | +7.7 2 |
| 114.7 6 | Offensive rating | 115.2 5 |
| 113.2 19 | Defensive rating | 107.5 3 |
| 57.2% 1 | Effective FG% | 55.1% 8 |
| 55.2% 20 | Opponent eFG% | 51.4% 2 |
| 14.9 22 | Turnovers per 100 | 13.3 6 |
| 24.2% 21 | Offensive rebound % | 26.4% 10 |
| 36.3% 9 | 3-point % | 35.8% 14 |
| 100.5 23 | Pace | 102.5 15 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-10 | 2025-26 | SAS 136 @ LAL 108 | SAS |
| 2026-01-07 | 2025-26 | LAL 91 @ SAS 107 | SAS |
| 2025-12-10 | 2025-26 | SAS 132 @ LAL 119 | SAS |
| 2025-11-05 | 2025-26 | SAS 116 @ LAL 118 | LAL |
| 2025-03-17 | 2024-25 | SAS 109 @ LAL 125 | LAL |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works