LAL
TOR
Los Angeles Lakers @ Toronto Raptors
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
TORToronto Raptors
53% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 53% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why Raptors can win
- Home court: the Raptors play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Simulation: the Raptors win 5,290 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Raptors 8th (13.6), Lakers 22nd (14.9).
- The Raptors' shooting (54.3% eFG%, 15th in the NBA) meets a Lakers defense that ranks 20th.
- Body clock: the Lakers cross 3 time zones.
Disadvantages Why Raptors may not
- Upset odds: the Lakers win 4,710 of 10,000 simulations (47%). A 53% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- The Lakers' shooting (57.2% eFG%, 1st in the NBA) meets a Raptors defense that ranks 8th.
- Three-point shooting: Lakers 9th (36.3%), Raptors 21st (35.2%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Raptors lose by 16 or more.
- Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Lakers 2nd (0.25), Raptors 17th (0.21).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | TOR -1 |
| Total points | n/a | 227.1 |
| Win chance | LAL n/a · TOR n/a | LAL 47% · TOR 53% |
| Fair moneyline | LAL +112 · TOR -112 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Raptors 114, Lakers 113.
- 80% of simulations land between Lakers by 16 and Raptors by 18.
Side by side
| LAL | TOR | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 3-1 |
| +1.5 13 | Net rating | +3.0 9 |
| 114.7 6 | Offensive rating | 112.4 15 |
| 113.2 19 | Defensive rating | 109.4 7 |
| 57.2% 1 | Effective FG% | 54.3% 15 |
| 55.2% 20 | Opponent eFG% | 53.8% 8 |
| 14.9 22 | Turnovers per 100 | 13.6 8 |
| 24.2% 21 | Offensive rebound % | 25.7% 15 |
| 36.3% 9 | 3-point % | 35.2% 21 |
| 100.5 23 | Pace | 101.8 21 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-18 | 2025-26 | TOR 93 @ LAL 110 | LAL |
| 2025-12-04 | 2025-26 | LAL 123 @ TOR 120 | LAL |
| 2024-11-10 | 2024-25 | TOR 103 @ LAL 123 | LAL |
| 2024-11-01 | 2024-25 | LAL 131 @ TOR 125 | LAL |
| 2024-04-02 | 2023-24 | LAL 128 @ TOR 111 | LAL |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works