LAL
UTA
Los Angeles Lakers @ Utah Jazz
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
LALLos Angeles Lakers
70% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 70% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Lakers can win
- The Lakers' shooting (57.2% eFG%, 1st in the NBA) meets a Jazz defense that ranks 30th.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 5.8 points to the Lakers in our ratings.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Lakers +9.6, Jazz -7.8.
- The Lakers' offense (114.7 points per 100 possessions, 6th in the NBA) meets a Jazz defense that ranks 29th.
- Simulation: the Lakers win 7,010 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why Lakers may not
- Home court: the Jazz play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Upset odds: the Jazz win 2,990 of 10,000 simulations (30%). A 70% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Lakers lose by 10 or more.
- Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Jazz 12th (26.3%), Lakers 21st (24.2%).
- Weak spot: the Lakers rank 22nd of 30 in ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions) (14.9).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | LAL -7.1 |
| Total points | n/a | 234.1 |
| Win chance | LAL n/a · UTA n/a | LAL 70% · UTA 30% |
| Fair moneyline | LAL -234 · UTA +234 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Jazz 114, Lakers 121.
- 80% of simulations land between Lakers by 24 and Jazz by 10.
Side by side
| LAL | UTA | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 1-4 |
| +1.5 13 | Net rating | -7.9 27 |
| 114.7 6 | Offensive rating | 111.1 20 |
| 113.2 19 | Defensive rating | 119.0 29 |
| 57.2% 1 | Effective FG% | 53.6% 20 |
| 55.2% 20 | Opponent eFG% | 57.6% 30 |
| 14.9 22 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.8 21 |
| 24.2% 21 | Offensive rebound % | 26.3% 12 |
| 36.3% 9 | 3-point % | 34.4% 24 |
| 100.5 23 | Pace | 105.6 2 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | 2026-27 | LAL 132 @ UTA 123 | LAL |
| 2026-04-12 | 2025-26 | UTA 107 @ LAL 131 | LAL |
| 2025-12-18 | 2025-26 | LAL 143 @ UTA 135 | LAL |
| 2025-11-23 | 2025-26 | LAL 108 @ UTA 106 | LAL |
| 2025-11-18 | 2025-26 | UTA 126 @ LAL 140 | LAL |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works