LAL
WAS
Los Angeles Lakers @ Washington Wizards
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
LALLos Angeles Lakers
71% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 71% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Lakers can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 5.7 points to the Lakers in our ratings.
- The Lakers' shooting (57.2% eFG%, 1st in the NBA) meets a Wizards defense that ranks 27th.
- The Lakers' offense (114.7 points per 100 possessions, 6th in the NBA) meets a Wizards defense that ranks 30th.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Lakers 13th (+1.5), Wizards 30th (-10.9).
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Lakers +9.6, Wizards -2.2.
Disadvantages Why Lakers may not
- Home court: the Wizards play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Upset odds: the Wizards win 2,920 of 10,000 simulations (29%). A 71% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Lakers lose by 10 or more.
- Body clock: the Lakers cross 3 time zones.
- Weak spot: the Lakers rank 22nd of 30 in ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions) (14.9).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | LAL -7 |
| Total points | n/a | 232.1 |
| Win chance | LAL n/a · WAS n/a | LAL 71% · WAS 29% |
| Fair moneyline | LAL -243 · WAS +243 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Wizards 113, Lakers 120.
- 80% of simulations land between Lakers by 24 and Wizards by 10.
Side by side
| LAL | WAS | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 2-3 |
| +1.5 13 | Net rating | -10.9 30 |
| 114.7 6 | Offensive rating | 108.2 29 |
| 113.2 19 | Defensive rating | 119.2 30 |
| 57.2% 1 | Effective FG% | 53.5% 21 |
| 55.2% 20 | Opponent eFG% | 55.9% 27 |
| 14.9 22 | Turnovers per 100 | 15.0 23 |
| 24.2% 21 | Offensive rebound % | 23.9% 22 |
| 36.3% 9 | 3-point % | 35.5% 18 |
| 100.5 23 | Pace | 104.3 5 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-30 | 2025-26 | WAS 101 @ LAL 120 | LAL |
| 2026-01-30 | 2025-26 | LAL 142 @ WAS 111 | LAL |
| 2025-01-30 | 2024-25 | LAL 134 @ WAS 96 | LAL |
| 2025-01-21 | 2024-25 | WAS 88 @ LAL 111 | LAL |
| 2024-04-03 | 2023-24 | LAL 125 @ WAS 120 | LAL |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works