MEM

Memphis Grizzlies @ Atlanta Hawks

Any-day matchup · ratings as of Oct 30, 7:50 PM ET

ATL

Our pick

ATLAtlanta Hawks

56% to win

A probability, not a promise. A 56% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.

AZMango model

MEM 44%ATL 56%

No market price for this matchup yet, so there is nothing to compare against.

Advantages Why Hawks can win

The Hawks' shooting (55.0% eFG%, 11th in the NBA) meets a Grizzlies defense that ranks 26th.
Home court: the Hawks play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
Simulation: the Hawks win 5,610 of 10,000 simulated games.
Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Hawks 14th (+1.2), Grizzlies 22nd (-4.8).
The Hawks' offense (112.5 points per 100 possessions, 14th in the NBA) meets a Grizzlies defense that ranks 22nd.

Disadvantages Why Hawks may not

Upset odds: the Grizzlies win 4,390 of 10,000 simulations (44%). A 56% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Grizzlies +12.0, Hawks +4.2.
Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Hawks lose by 14 or more.
Weak spot: the Hawks rank 27th of 30 in getting to the line (free throws per shot) (0.18).
Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Grizzlies 19th (0.20), Hawks 27th (0.18).

The line and our numbers

	Market	AZMango
Spread	No line yet	ATL -2.3
Total points	n/a	232.8
Win chance	MEM n/a · ATL n/a	MEM 44% · ATL 56%
Fair moneyline		MEM +128 · ATL -128

No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.

10,000 simulated games, possession by possession

Typical score: Hawks 118, Grizzlies 116.
80% of simulations land between Grizzlies by 14 and Hawks by 19.

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Side by side

MEM		ATL
5-0	Record	3-3
-4.8 22	Net rating	+1.2 14
110.2 23	Offensive rating	112.5 14
114.9 22	Defensive rating	111.3 11
53.3% 23	Effective FG%	55.0% 11
55.8% 26	Opponent eFG%	54.6% 19
14.5 18	Turnovers per 100	13.6 7
25.2% 17	Offensive rebound %	24.3% 20
35.5% 17	3-point %	36.7% 7
104.3 7	Pace	104.3 6

Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).

Last 5 meetings

Date	Season	Score	Winner
2026-03-23	2025-26	MEM 107 @ ATL 146	ATL
2026-01-21	2025-26	ATL 124 @ MEM 122	ATL
2025-03-03	2024-25	ATL 132 @ MEM 130	ATL
2024-12-21	2024-25	MEM 128 @ ATL 112	MEM
2024-03-08	2023-24	ATL 99 @ MEM 92	ATL

No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.

Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works

Player matchups

MEM

Ty Jerome G

21.2 pts, 2.9 reb, 5.7 ast in 24.6 min, 47% FG

vs a defense ranked 11 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.6%)

MEM

Cameron Boozer F

15.4 pts, 10.8 reb, 6.2 ast in 32 min, 32% FG

vs a defense ranked 11 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.6%)

MEM

Santi Aldama F

14 pts, 6.7 reb, 2.9 ast in 27.8 min, 48% FG

vs a defense ranked 11 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.6%)

ATL

Jalen Johnson F

22.1 pts, 10 reb, 7.7 ast in 35.1 min, 48% FG

vs a defense ranked 22 of 30 (opponent eFG% 55.8%)

ATL

Nickeil Alexander-Walker G

20.3 pts, 3.4 reb, 3.5 ast in 33.3 min, 45% FG

vs a defense ranked 22 of 30 (opponent eFG% 55.8%)

ATL

Dyson Daniels G

11.5 pts, 6.7 reb, 5.8 ast in 32.5 min, 51% FG

vs a defense ranked 22 of 30 (opponent eFG% 55.8%)

Per-game averages, 2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons. Ordered by Game Score.

Last time they met

The Hawks beat the Grizzlies 146-107 at home (2026-03-23). The difference: they shot 67% effective field goal percentage to 51% and they made 25 threes to 14, a 33-point swing. Nickeil Alexander-Walker led the Hawks with 26 points.