MEM

Memphis Grizzlies @ Brooklyn Nets

Any-day matchup · ratings as of Oct 30, 7:50 PM ET

BKN

Our pick

MEMMemphis Grizzlies

65% to win

A probability, not a promise. A 65% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.

AZMango model

MEM 65%BKN 35%

No market price for this matchup yet, so there is nothing to compare against.

Advantages Why Grizzlies can win

Recent scoring margins: worth about 4.8 points to the Grizzlies in our ratings.
Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Grizzlies +12.0, Nets -9.8.
Simulation: the Grizzlies win 6,490 of 10,000 simulated games.
Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 2.2 points to the Grizzlies in our ratings.
Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Grizzlies 22nd (-4.8), Nets 28th (-9.9).

Disadvantages Why Grizzlies may not

Home court: the Nets play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
Upset odds: the Nets win 3,510 of 10,000 simulations (35%). A 65% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Defensive rebounding (share of misses): Nets 13th (74.1%), Grizzlies 29th (71.0%).
Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Grizzlies lose by 11 or more.
Weak spot: the Grizzlies rank 29th of 30 in defensive rebounding (share of misses) (71.0%).

The line and our numbers

	Market	AZMango
Spread	No line yet	MEM -5.2
Total points	n/a	230.8
Win chance	MEM n/a · BKN n/a	MEM 65% · BKN 35%
Fair moneyline		MEM -185 · BKN +185

No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.

10,000 simulated games, possession by possession

Typical score: Nets 113, Grizzlies 118.
80% of simulations land between Grizzlies by 22 and Nets by 11.

See live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel

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Side by side

MEM		BKN
5-0	Record	0-4
-4.8 22	Net rating	-9.9 28
110.2 23	Offensive rating	105.9 30
114.9 22	Defensive rating	115.9 26
53.3% 23	Effective FG%	52.0% 30
55.8% 26	Opponent eFG%	57.2% 28
14.5 18	Turnovers per 100	15.8 29
25.2% 17	Offensive rebound %	23.8% 23
35.5% 17	3-point %	34.2% 27
104.3 7	Pace	100.4 24

Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).

Last 5 meetings

Date	Season	Score	Winner
2026-03-09	2025-26	MEM 115 @ BKN 126	BKN
2026-01-11	2025-26	BKN 98 @ MEM 103	MEM
2024-12-13	2024-25	BKN 119 @ MEM 135	MEM
2024-11-04	2024-25	MEM 104 @ BKN 106	BKN
2024-10-30	2024-25	BKN 119 @ MEM 106	BKN

No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.

Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works

Player matchups

MEM

Ty Jerome G

21.2 pts, 2.9 reb, 5.7 ast in 24.6 min, 47% FG

vs a defense ranked 26 of 30 (opponent eFG% 57.2%)

MEM

Cameron Boozer F

15.4 pts, 10.8 reb, 6.2 ast in 32 min, 32% FG

vs a defense ranked 26 of 30 (opponent eFG% 57.2%)

MEM

Santi Aldama F

14 pts, 6.7 reb, 2.9 ast in 27.8 min, 48% FG

vs a defense ranked 26 of 30 (opponent eFG% 57.2%)

BKN

Michael Porter Jr. F

24.1 pts, 7.1 reb, 2.9 ast in 32.5 min, 46% FG

vs a defense ranked 22 of 30 (opponent eFG% 55.8%)

BKN

Julius Randle F

22.5 pts, 7.5 reb, 5.8 ast in 35.2 min, 48% FG

vs a defense ranked 22 of 30 (opponent eFG% 55.8%)

BKN

Nic Claxton C

11.7 pts, 6.9 reb, 3.7 ast in 27.8 min, 57% FG

vs a defense ranked 22 of 30 (opponent eFG% 55.8%)

Per-game averages, 2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons. Ordered by Game Score.

Last time they met

The Nets beat the Grizzlies 126-115 at home (2026-03-09). The difference: they shot 65% effective field goal percentage to 51% and they made 17 threes to 14, a 9-point swing.