MEM
BOS
Memphis Grizzlies @ Boston Celtics
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
BOSBoston Celtics
63% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 63% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Celtics can win
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Celtics 4th (+7.5), Grizzlies 22nd (-4.8).
- The Celtics' offense (116.6 points per 100 possessions, 2nd in the NBA) meets a Grizzlies defense that ranks 22nd.
- The Celtics' shooting (55.1% eFG%, 10th in the NBA) meets a Grizzlies defense that ranks 26th.
- Simulation: the Celtics win 6,290 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Point differential per game: Celtics 4th (+7.3), Grizzlies 22nd (-5.0).
Disadvantages Why Celtics may not
- Upset odds: the Grizzlies win 3,710 of 10,000 simulations (37%). A 63% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Grizzlies 8th (14.9), Celtics 27th (12.8).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Celtics lose by 12 or more.
- Weak spot: the Celtics rank 29th of 30 in getting to the line (free throws per shot) (0.17).
- Weak spot: the Celtics rank 27th of 30 in turnovers forced per 100 possessions (12.8).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | BOS -4.4 |
| Total points | n/a | 227.1 |
| Win chance | MEM n/a · BOS n/a | MEM 37% · BOS 63% |
| Fair moneyline | MEM +170 · BOS -170 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Celtics 116, Grizzlies 112.
- 80% of simulations land between Grizzlies by 12 and Celtics by 22.
Side by side
| MEM | BOS | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-0 | Record | 3-1 |
| -4.8 22 | Net rating | +7.5 4 |
| 110.2 23 | Offensive rating | 116.6 2 |
| 114.9 22 | Defensive rating | 109.1 5 |
| 53.3% 23 | Effective FG% | 55.1% 10 |
| 55.8% 26 | Opponent eFG% | 52.2% 4 |
| 14.5 18 | Turnovers per 100 | 12.7 2 |
| 25.2% 17 | Offensive rebound % | 29.0% 6 |
| 35.5% 17 | 3-point % | 36.5% 8 |
| 104.3 7 | Pace | 98.1 30 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-20 | 2025-26 | BOS 117 @ MEM 112 | BOS |
| 2025-11-12 | 2025-26 | MEM 95 @ BOS 131 | BOS |
| 2025-03-31 | 2024-25 | BOS 117 @ MEM 103 | BOS |
| 2024-12-07 | 2024-25 | MEM 127 @ BOS 121 | MEM |
| 2024-02-04 | 2023-24 | MEM 91 @ BOS 131 | BOS |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works