MEM
CLE
Memphis Grizzlies @ Cleveland Cavaliers
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
CLECleveland Cavaliers
55% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 55% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Cavaliers can win
- The Cavaliers' shooting (55.5% eFG%, 7th in the NBA) meets a Grizzlies defense that ranks 26th.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Cavaliers 10th (+2.7), Grizzlies 22nd (-4.8).
- The Cavaliers' offense (114.5 points per 100 possessions, 9th in the NBA) meets a Grizzlies defense that ranks 22nd.
- Home court: the Cavaliers play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Simulation: the Cavaliers win 5,530 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why Cavaliers may not
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Grizzlies +12.0, Cavaliers +1.0.
- Upset odds: the Grizzlies win 4,470 of 10,000 simulations (45%). A 55% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Cavaliers lose by 15 or more.
- Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three can swing an NBA game by 15 points.
- Late scratches: stars can be ruled out right up to tip-off, after our last update.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | CLE -1.7 |
| Total points | n/a | 231.2 |
| Win chance | MEM n/a · CLE n/a | MEM 45% · CLE 55% |
| Fair moneyline | MEM +124 · CLE -124 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Cavaliers 117, Grizzlies 115.
- 80% of simulations land between Grizzlies by 15 and Cavaliers by 18.
Side by side
| MEM | CLE | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-0 | Record | 3-2 |
| -4.8 22 | Net rating | +2.7 10 |
| 110.2 23 | Offensive rating | 114.5 9 |
| 114.9 22 | Defensive rating | 111.8 15 |
| 53.3% 23 | Effective FG% | 55.5% 7 |
| 55.8% 26 | Opponent eFG% | 54.2% 15 |
| 14.5 18 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.2 15 |
| 25.2% 17 | Offensive rebound % | 27.0% 8 |
| 35.5% 17 | 3-point % | 35.4% 19 |
| 104.3 7 | Pace | 102.6 14 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-06 | 2025-26 | CLE 142 @ MEM 126 | CLE |
| 2025-11-15 | 2025-26 | MEM 100 @ CLE 108 | CLE |
| 2025-03-14 | 2024-25 | CLE 133 @ MEM 124 | CLE |
| 2025-02-23 | 2024-25 | MEM 123 @ CLE 129 | CLE |
| 2024-04-10 | 2023-24 | MEM 98 @ CLE 110 | CLE |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works