MEM
DAL
Memphis Grizzlies @ Dallas Mavericks
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
DALDallas Mavericks
52% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 52% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why Mavericks can win
- Home court: the Mavericks play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Simulation: the Mavericks win 5,170 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Defensive rebounding (share of misses): Mavericks 16th (73.9%), Grizzlies 29th (71.0%).
- Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Mavericks 13th (0.21), Grizzlies 19th (0.20).
- Relative strength: the Mavericks rank 13th of 30 in ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions) (14.0).
Disadvantages Why Mavericks may not
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Grizzlies +12.0, Mavericks +2.0.
- Upset odds: the Grizzlies win 4,830 of 10,000 simulations (48%). A 52% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Grizzlies 8th (14.9), Mavericks 26th (12.8).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.0 points to the Grizzlies in our ratings.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Mavericks lose by 16 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DAL -0.6 |
| Total points | n/a | 231.2 |
| Win chance | MEM n/a · DAL n/a | MEM 48% · DAL 52% |
| Fair moneyline | MEM +107 · DAL -107 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Mavericks 116, Grizzlies 116.
- 80% of simulations land between Grizzlies by 16 and Mavericks by 17.
Side by side
| MEM | DAL | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-0 | Record | 3-2 |
| -4.8 22 | Net rating | -4.8 23 |
| 110.2 23 | Offensive rating | 108.7 26 |
| 114.9 22 | Defensive rating | 113.5 20 |
| 53.3% 23 | Effective FG% | 52.9% 25 |
| 55.8% 26 | Opponent eFG% | 54.5% 17 |
| 14.5 18 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.0 13 |
| 25.2% 17 | Offensive rebound % | 23.4% 25 |
| 35.5% 17 | 3-point % | 34.4% 26 |
| 104.3 7 | Pace | 105.0 4 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-12 | 2025-26 | DAL 120 @ MEM 112 | DAL |
| 2026-02-27 | 2025-26 | MEM 124 @ DAL 105 | MEM |
| 2025-11-22 | 2025-26 | MEM 102 @ DAL 96 | MEM |
| 2025-11-07 | 2025-26 | DAL 104 @ MEM 118 | MEM |
| 2025-04-18 | 2024-25 | DAL 106 @ MEM 120 | MEM |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works