MEM
DET
Memphis Grizzlies @ Detroit Pistons
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
DETDetroit Pistons
66% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 66% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Pistons can win
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Pistons 5th (+7.0), Grizzlies 22nd (-4.8).
- Simulation: the Pistons win 6,630 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.2 points to the Pistons in our ratings.
- Point differential per game: Pistons 5th (+7.2), Grizzlies 22nd (-5.0).
- Home court: the Pistons play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
Disadvantages Why Pistons may not
- Upset odds: the Grizzlies win 3,370 of 10,000 simulations (34%). A 66% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Pistons lose by 12 or more.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Grizzlies 18th (14.5), Pistons 24th (15.0).
- Weak spot: the Pistons rank 24th of 30 in ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions) (15.0).
- Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three can swing an NBA game by 15 points.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DET -5.5 |
| Total points | n/a | 223.9 |
| Win chance | MEM n/a · DET n/a | MEM 34% · DET 66% |
| Fair moneyline | MEM +196 · DET -196 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Pistons 115, Grizzlies 110.
- 80% of simulations land between Grizzlies by 12 and Pistons by 22.
Side by side
| MEM | DET | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-0 | Record | 4-1 |
| -4.8 22 | Net rating | +7.0 5 |
| 110.2 23 | Offensive rating | 113.2 12 |
| 114.9 22 | Defensive rating | 106.2 2 |
| 53.3% 23 | Effective FG% | 54.2% 16 |
| 55.8% 26 | Opponent eFG% | 51.4% 1 |
| 14.5 18 | Turnovers per 100 | 15.0 24 |
| 25.2% 17 | Offensive rebound % | 30.8% 3 |
| 35.5% 17 | 3-point % | 35.8% 15 |
| 104.3 7 | Pace | 102.1 19 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-13 | 2025-26 | MEM 110 @ DET 126 | DET |
| 2025-11-03 | 2025-26 | DET 114 @ MEM 106 | DET |
| 2025-04-05 | 2024-25 | MEM 109 @ DET 103 | MEM |
| 2024-11-27 | 2024-25 | DET 111 @ MEM 131 | MEM |
| 2024-04-05 | 2023-24 | DET 90 @ MEM 108 | MEM |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works