MEM

Memphis Grizzlies @ Golden State Warriors

Any-day matchup · ratings as of Oct 30, 7:50 PM ET

GSW

Our pick

GSWGolden State Warriors

50% to win

A probability, not a promise. A 50% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.

AZMango model

MEM 50%GSW 50%

No market price for this matchup yet, so there is nothing to compare against.

Advantages Why Warriors can win

The Warriors' shooting (55.0% eFG%, 12th in the NBA) meets a Grizzlies defense that ranks 26th.
Home court: the Warriors play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
Simulation: the Warriors win 5,030 of 10,000 simulated games.
The Warriors' offense (112.2 points per 100 possessions, 16th in the NBA) meets a Grizzlies defense that ranks 22nd.
Body clock: the Grizzlies cross 2 time zones.

Disadvantages Why Warriors may not

Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Grizzlies +12.0, Warriors -1.8.
Upset odds: the Grizzlies win 4,970 of 10,000 simulations (50%). A 50% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.3 points to the Grizzlies in our ratings.
Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Warriors lose by 17 or more.
Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Grizzlies 18th (14.5), Warriors 27th (15.5).

The line and our numbers

	Market	AZMango
Spread	No line yet	GSW -0.1
Total points	n/a	231.6
Win chance	MEM n/a · GSW n/a	MEM 50% · GSW 50%
Fair moneyline		MEM +101 · GSW -101

No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.

10,000 simulated games, possession by possession

Typical score: Warriors 116, Grizzlies 116.
80% of simulations land between Grizzlies by 17 and Warriors by 17.

See live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel

Plain links. We are not paid for them and take no bets.

Side by side

MEM		GSW
5-0	Record	2-3
-4.8 22	Net rating	-0.7 19
110.2 23	Offensive rating	112.2 16
114.9 22	Defensive rating	112.9 17
53.3% 23	Effective FG%	55.0% 12
55.8% 26	Opponent eFG%	55.6% 24
14.5 18	Turnovers per 100	15.5 27
25.2% 17	Offensive rebound %	26.3% 11
35.5% 17	3-point %	35.7% 16
104.3 7	Pace	102.3 17

Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).

Last 5 meetings

Date	Season	Score	Winner
2026-10-23	2026-27	MEM 111 @ GSW 108	MEM
2026-02-25	2025-26	GSW 133 @ MEM 112	GSW
2026-02-09	2025-26	MEM 113 @ GSW 114	GSW
2025-10-27	2025-26	MEM 118 @ GSW 131	GSW
2025-04-15	2024-25	MEM 116 @ GSW 121	GSW

No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.

Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works

Player matchups

MEM

Ty Jerome G

21.2 pts, 2.9 reb, 5.7 ast in 24.6 min, 47% FG

vs a defense ranked 17 of 30 (opponent eFG% 55.6%)

MEM

Cameron Boozer F

15.4 pts, 10.8 reb, 6.2 ast in 32 min, 32% FG

vs a defense ranked 17 of 30 (opponent eFG% 55.6%)

MEM

Santi Aldama F

14 pts, 6.7 reb, 2.9 ast in 27.8 min, 48% FG

vs a defense ranked 17 of 30 (opponent eFG% 55.6%)

GSW

Stephen Curry G

26.7 pts, 3.6 reb, 4.6 ast in 30.9 min, 47% FG

vs a defense ranked 22 of 30 (opponent eFG% 55.8%)

GSW

Jimmy Butler III F

20 pts, 5.6 reb, 4.9 ast in 31.2 min, 52% FG

vs a defense ranked 22 of 30 (opponent eFG% 55.8%)

GSW

Yaxel Lendeborg F

22.6 pts, 9.2 reb, 4 ast in 33.6 min, 48% FG

vs a defense ranked 22 of 30 (opponent eFG% 55.8%)

Per-game averages, 2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons. Ordered by Game Score.

Last time they met

The Grizzlies beat the Warriors 111-108 on the road (2026-10-23). The box score was close to even; it came down to the last few possessions. Ty Jerome led the Grizzlies with 28 points.