MEM
LAC
Memphis Grizzlies @ LA Clippers
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
LACLA Clippers
52% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 52% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why Clippers can win
- The Clippers' shooting (55.9% eFG%, 4th in the NBA) meets a Grizzlies defense that ranks 26th.
- Home court: the Clippers play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- The Clippers' offense (114.0 points per 100 possessions, 10th in the NBA) meets a Grizzlies defense that ranks 22nd.
- Simulation: the Clippers win 5,190 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Clippers 15th (+0.9), Grizzlies 22nd (-4.8).
Disadvantages Why Clippers may not
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Grizzlies +12.0, Clippers -1.5.
- Upset odds: the Grizzlies win 4,810 of 10,000 simulations (48%). A 52% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Clippers lose by 16 or more.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 0.7 points to the Grizzlies in our ratings.
- Weak spot: the Clippers rank 25th of 30 in defensive rebounding (share of misses) (72.8%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | LAC -0.8 |
| Total points | n/a | 225.9 |
| Win chance | MEM n/a · LAC n/a | MEM 48% · LAC 52% |
| Fair moneyline | MEM +108 · LAC -108 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Clippers 114, Grizzlies 113.
- 80% of simulations land between Grizzlies by 16 and Clippers by 18.
Side by side
| MEM | LAC | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-0 | Record | 1-3 |
| -4.8 22 | Net rating | +0.9 15 |
| 110.2 23 | Offensive rating | 114.0 10 |
| 114.9 22 | Defensive rating | 113.0 18 |
| 53.3% 23 | Effective FG% | 55.9% 4 |
| 55.8% 26 | Opponent eFG% | 54.6% 18 |
| 14.5 18 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.7 20 |
| 25.2% 17 | Offensive rebound % | 23.8% 24 |
| 35.5% 17 | 3-point % | 36.9% 5 |
| 104.3 7 | Pace | 99.6 29 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-07 | 2025-26 | LAC 123 @ MEM 120 | LAC |
| 2025-12-15 | 2025-26 | MEM 121 @ LAC 103 | MEM |
| 2025-12-05 | 2025-26 | LAC 98 @ MEM 107 | MEM |
| 2025-11-28 | 2025-26 | MEM 112 @ LAC 107 | MEM |
| 2025-03-21 | 2024-25 | MEM 108 @ LAC 128 | LAC |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works