MEM
LAL
Memphis Grizzlies @ Los Angeles Lakers
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
LALLos Angeles Lakers
64% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 64% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Lakers can win
- The Lakers' shooting (57.2% eFG%, 1st in the NBA) meets a Grizzlies defense that ranks 26th.
- Simulation: the Lakers win 6,370 of 10,000 simulated games.
- The Lakers' offense (114.7 points per 100 possessions, 6th in the NBA) meets a Grizzlies defense that ranks 22nd.
- Home court: the Lakers play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Lakers 13th (+1.5), Grizzlies 22nd (-4.8).
Disadvantages Why Lakers may not
- Upset odds: the Grizzlies win 3,630 of 10,000 simulations (36%). A 64% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Lakers lose by 12 or more.
- Weak spot: the Lakers rank 22nd of 30 in ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions) (14.9).
- Weak spot: the Lakers rank 21st of 30 in offensive rebounding (share of misses) (24.2%).
- Weak spot: the Lakers rank 20th of 30 in shooting allowed (opponent eFG%) (55.2%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | LAL -4.7 |
| Total points | n/a | 229.9 |
| Win chance | MEM n/a · LAL n/a | MEM 36% · LAL 64% |
| Fair moneyline | MEM +176 · LAL -176 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Lakers 118, Grizzlies 113.
- 80% of simulations land between Grizzlies by 12 and Lakers by 21.
Side by side
| MEM | LAL | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-0 | Record | 4-1 |
| -4.8 22 | Net rating | +1.5 13 |
| 110.2 23 | Offensive rating | 114.7 6 |
| 114.9 22 | Defensive rating | 113.2 19 |
| 53.3% 23 | Effective FG% | 57.2% 1 |
| 55.8% 26 | Opponent eFG% | 55.2% 20 |
| 14.5 18 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.9 22 |
| 25.2% 17 | Offensive rebound % | 24.2% 21 |
| 35.5% 17 | 3-point % | 36.3% 9 |
| 104.3 7 | Pace | 100.5 23 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-04 | 2025-26 | MEM 114 @ LAL 120 | LAL |
| 2026-01-02 | 2025-26 | MEM 121 @ LAL 128 | LAL |
| 2025-10-31 | 2025-26 | LAL 117 @ MEM 112 | LAL |
| 2025-03-29 | 2024-25 | LAL 134 @ MEM 127 | LAL |
| 2024-12-15 | 2024-25 | MEM 110 @ LAL 116 | LAL |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works