MEM
MIL
Memphis Grizzlies @ Milwaukee Bucks
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
MEMMemphis Grizzlies
65% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 65% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Grizzlies can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 4.9 points to the Grizzlies in our ratings.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Grizzlies +12.0, Bucks -10.8.
- Simulation: the Grizzlies win 6,510 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 2.2 points to the Grizzlies in our ratings.
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Grizzlies 8th (14.9), Bucks 24th (13.0).
Disadvantages Why Grizzlies may not
- The Bucks' shooting (56.3% eFG%, 3rd in the NBA) meets a Grizzlies defense that ranks 26th.
- Home court: the Bucks play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Upset odds: the Bucks win 3,490 of 10,000 simulations (35%). A 65% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Three-point shooting: Bucks 2nd (38.4%), Grizzlies 17th (35.5%).
- Defensive rebounding (share of misses): Bucks 11th (74.2%), Grizzlies 29th (71.0%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | MEM -5.3 |
| Total points | n/a | 230.9 |
| Win chance | MEM n/a · MIL n/a | MEM 65% · MIL 35% |
| Fair moneyline | MEM -187 · MIL +187 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Bucks 113, Grizzlies 118.
- 80% of simulations land between Grizzlies by 22 and Bucks by 12.
Side by side
| MEM | MIL | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-0 | Record | 1-4 |
| -4.8 22 | Net rating | -6.4 25 |
| 110.2 23 | Offensive rating | 110.1 24 |
| 114.9 22 | Defensive rating | 116.5 27 |
| 53.3% 23 | Effective FG% | 56.3% 3 |
| 55.8% 26 | Opponent eFG% | 55.7% 25 |
| 14.5 18 | Turnovers per 100 | 15.2 25 |
| 25.2% 17 | Offensive rebound % | 21.7% 30 |
| 35.5% 17 | 3-point % | 38.4% 2 |
| 104.3 7 | Pace | 100.6 22 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-05 | 2025-26 | MEM 115 @ MIL 131 | MIL |
| 2025-12-26 | 2025-26 | MIL 104 @ MEM 125 | MEM |
| 2025-02-02 | 2024-25 | MEM 132 @ MIL 119 | MEM |
| 2024-10-31 | 2024-25 | MIL 99 @ MEM 122 | MEM |
| 2024-04-03 | 2023-24 | MEM 111 @ MIL 101 | MEM |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works