MEM
MIN
Memphis Grizzlies @ Minnesota Timberwolves
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
MINMinnesota Timberwolves
64% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 64% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Timberwolves can win
- The Timberwolves' shooting (55.1% eFG%, 9th in the NBA) meets a Grizzlies defense that ranks 26th.
- Simulation: the Timberwolves win 6,400 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Timberwolves 11th (+2.6), Grizzlies 22nd (-4.8).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.1 points to the Timberwolves in our ratings.
- Home court: the Timberwolves play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
Disadvantages Why Timberwolves may not
- Upset odds: the Grizzlies win 3,600 of 10,000 simulations (36%). A 64% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Timberwolves lose by 12 or more.
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Grizzlies 8th (14.9), Timberwolves 16th (14.3).
- Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three can swing an NBA game by 15 points.
- Late scratches: stars can be ruled out right up to tip-off, after our last update.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | MIN -5 |
| Total points | n/a | 230.5 |
| Win chance | MEM n/a · MIN n/a | MEM 36% · MIN 64% |
| Fair moneyline | MEM +177 · MIN -177 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Timberwolves 118, Grizzlies 113.
- 80% of simulations land between Grizzlies by 12 and Timberwolves by 22.
Side by side
| MEM | MIN | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-0 | Record | 3-2 |
| -4.8 22 | Net rating | +2.6 11 |
| 110.2 23 | Offensive rating | 112.7 13 |
| 114.9 22 | Defensive rating | 110.1 8 |
| 53.3% 23 | Effective FG% | 55.1% 9 |
| 55.8% 26 | Opponent eFG% | 52.8% 5 |
| 14.5 18 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.3 16 |
| 25.2% 17 | Offensive rebound % | 26.0% 13 |
| 35.5% 17 | 3-point % | 36.7% 6 |
| 104.3 7 | Pace | 103.8 10 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-03 | 2025-26 | MEM 110 @ MIN 117 | MIN |
| 2026-02-02 | 2025-26 | MIN 128 @ MEM 137 | MEM |
| 2026-01-31 | 2025-26 | MIN 131 @ MEM 114 | MIN |
| 2025-12-17 | 2025-26 | MEM 116 @ MIN 110 | MEM |
| 2025-04-10 | 2024-25 | MIN 141 @ MEM 125 | MIN |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works