MEM
NYK
Memphis Grizzlies @ New York Knicks
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
NYKNew York Knicks
63% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 63% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Knicks can win
- The Knicks' shooting (55.6% eFG%, 5th in the NBA) meets a Grizzlies defense that ranks 26th.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Knicks 3rd (+7.6), Grizzlies 22nd (-4.8).
- The Knicks' offense (116.4 points per 100 possessions, 3rd in the NBA) meets a Grizzlies defense that ranks 22nd.
- Simulation: the Knicks win 6,270 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Point differential per game: Knicks 3rd (+7.6), Grizzlies 22nd (-5.0).
Disadvantages Why Knicks may not
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Grizzlies +12.0, Knicks +0.2.
- Upset odds: the Grizzlies win 3,730 of 10,000 simulations (37%). A 63% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Knicks lose by 12 or more.
- Weak spot: the Knicks rank 25th of 30 in getting to the line (free throws per shot) (0.19).
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Grizzlies 8th (14.9), Knicks 15th (14.3).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | NYK -4.5 |
| Total points | n/a | 224.4 |
| Win chance | MEM n/a · NYK n/a | MEM 37% · NYK 63% |
| Fair moneyline | MEM +168 · NYK -168 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Knicks 115, Grizzlies 110.
- 80% of simulations land between Grizzlies by 12 and Knicks by 21.
Side by side
| MEM | NYK | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-0 | Record | 2-3 |
| -4.8 22 | Net rating | +7.6 3 |
| 110.2 23 | Offensive rating | 116.4 3 |
| 114.9 22 | Defensive rating | 108.7 4 |
| 53.3% 23 | Effective FG% | 55.6% 5 |
| 55.8% 26 | Opponent eFG% | 53.3% 7 |
| 14.5 18 | Turnovers per 100 | 13.7 9 |
| 25.2% 17 | Offensive rebound % | 29.3% 5 |
| 35.5% 17 | 3-point % | 37.5% 3 |
| 104.3 7 | Pace | 99.8 28 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-01 | 2025-26 | NYK 130 @ MEM 119 | NYK |
| 2025-11-11 | 2025-26 | MEM 120 @ NYK 133 | NYK |
| 2025-02-28 | 2024-25 | NYK 114 @ MEM 113 | NYK |
| 2025-01-27 | 2024-25 | MEM 106 @ NYK 143 | NYK |
| 2024-02-06 | 2023-24 | MEM 113 @ NYK 123 | NYK |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works