MEM
OKC
Memphis Grizzlies @ Oklahoma City Thunder
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
OKCOklahoma City Thunder
66% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 66% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Thunder can win
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Thunder 1st (+10.0), Grizzlies 22nd (-4.8).
- The Thunder' shooting (55.6% eFG%, 6th in the NBA) meets a Grizzlies defense that ranks 26th.
- The Thunder' offense (115.4 points per 100 possessions, 4th in the NBA) meets a Grizzlies defense that ranks 22nd.
- Simulation: the Thunder win 6,620 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Point differential per game: Thunder 1st (+10.2), Grizzlies 22nd (-5.0).
Disadvantages Why Thunder may not
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Grizzlies +12.0, Thunder +3.6.
- Upset odds: the Grizzlies win 3,380 of 10,000 simulations (34%). A 66% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Thunder lose by 12 or more.
- Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Grizzlies 17th (25.2%), Thunder 27th (23.4%).
- Weak spot: the Thunder rank 27th of 30 in offensive rebounding (share of misses) (23.4%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | OKC -5.4 |
| Total points | n/a | 225.4 |
| Win chance | MEM n/a · OKC n/a | MEM 34% · OKC 66% |
| Fair moneyline | MEM +196 · OKC -196 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Thunder 116, Grizzlies 110.
- 80% of simulations land between Grizzlies by 12 and Thunder by 22.
Side by side
| MEM | OKC | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-0 | Record | 4-1 |
| -4.8 22 | Net rating | +10.0 1 |
| 110.2 23 | Offensive rating | 115.4 4 |
| 114.9 22 | Defensive rating | 105.5 1 |
| 53.3% 23 | Effective FG% | 55.6% 6 |
| 55.8% 26 | Opponent eFG% | 51.8% 3 |
| 14.5 18 | Turnovers per 100 | 12.5 1 |
| 25.2% 17 | Offensive rebound % | 23.4% 27 |
| 35.5% 17 | 3-point % | 36.2% 10 |
| 104.3 7 | Pace | 102.2 18 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-09 | 2025-26 | OKC 117 @ MEM 116 | OKC |
| 2025-12-22 | 2025-26 | MEM 103 @ OKC 119 | OKC |
| 2025-11-09 | 2025-26 | OKC 114 @ MEM 100 | OKC |
| 2025-04-26 | Playoffs | OKC 117 @ MEM 115 | OKC |
| 2025-04-24 | Playoffs | OKC 114 @ MEM 108 | OKC |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works