MEM
PHI
Memphis Grizzlies @ Philadelphia 76ers
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
PHIPhiladelphia 76ers
53% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 53% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why 76ers can win
- Home court: the 76ers play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Simulation: the 76ers win 5,330 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): 76ers 5th (13.1), Grizzlies 18th (14.5).
- Getting to the line (free throws per shot): 76ers 7th (0.22), Grizzlies 19th (0.20).
- Strength: the 76ers rank 5th of 30 in ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions) (13.1).
Disadvantages Why 76ers may not
- Upset odds: the Grizzlies win 4,670 of 10,000 simulations (47%). A 53% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Grizzlies +12.0, 76ers +3.4.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the 76ers lose by 16 or more.
- Weak spot: the 76ers rank 27th of 30 in effective shooting (eFG%) (52.7%).
- Weak spot: the 76ers rank 26th of 30 in defensive rebounding (share of misses) (72.3%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | PHI -1.1 |
| Total points | n/a | 228.3 |
| Win chance | MEM n/a · PHI n/a | MEM 47% · PHI 53% |
| Fair moneyline | MEM +114 · PHI -114 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: 76ers 115, Grizzlies 114.
- 80% of simulations land between Grizzlies by 16 and 76ers by 18.
Side by side
| MEM | PHI | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-0 | Record | 4-1 |
| -4.8 22 | Net rating | -0.9 20 |
| 110.2 23 | Offensive rating | 111.2 19 |
| 114.9 22 | Defensive rating | 112.1 16 |
| 53.3% 23 | Effective FG% | 52.7% 27 |
| 55.8% 26 | Opponent eFG% | 54.0% 11 |
| 14.5 18 | Turnovers per 100 | 13.1 5 |
| 25.2% 17 | Offensive rebound % | 25.1% 18 |
| 35.5% 17 | 3-point % | 34.7% 23 |
| 104.3 7 | Pace | 102.7 13 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-10 | 2025-26 | MEM 129 @ PHI 139 | PHI |
| 2025-12-30 | 2025-26 | PHI 139 @ MEM 136 | PHI |
| 2024-11-20 | 2024-25 | PHI 111 @ MEM 117 | MEM |
| 2024-11-02 | 2024-25 | MEM 124 @ PHI 107 | MEM |
| 2024-04-06 | 2023-24 | PHI 116 @ MEM 96 | PHI |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works