MEM
PHX
Memphis Grizzlies @ Phoenix Suns
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
MEMMemphis Grizzlies
53% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 53% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why Grizzlies can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Grizzlies +12.0, Suns -14.3.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.0 points to the Grizzlies in our ratings.
- Simulation: the Grizzlies win 5,330 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 0.9 points to the Grizzlies in our ratings.
- Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Grizzlies 19th (0.20), Suns 28th (0.18).
Disadvantages Why Grizzlies may not
- Upset odds: the Suns win 4,670 of 10,000 simulations (47%). A 53% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Home court: the Suns play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- The Suns' shooting (53.7% eFG%, 19th in the NBA) meets a Grizzlies defense that ranks 26th.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Suns 16th (+0.2), Grizzlies 22nd (-4.8).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Grizzlies lose by 15 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | MEM -1.2 |
| Total points | n/a | 228.1 |
| Win chance | MEM n/a · PHX n/a | MEM 53% · PHX 47% |
| Fair moneyline | MEM -114 · PHX +114 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Suns 114, Grizzlies 115.
- 80% of simulations land between Grizzlies by 18 and Suns by 15.
Side by side
| MEM | PHX | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-0 | Record | 1-2 |
| -4.8 22 | Net rating | +0.2 16 |
| 110.2 23 | Offensive rating | 111.8 17 |
| 114.9 22 | Defensive rating | 111.6 13 |
| 53.3% 23 | Effective FG% | 53.7% 19 |
| 55.8% 26 | Opponent eFG% | 54.3% 16 |
| 14.5 18 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.5 19 |
| 25.2% 17 | Offensive rebound % | 28.7% 7 |
| 35.5% 17 | 3-point % | 35.9% 13 |
| 104.3 7 | Pace | 100.3 26 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-30 | 2025-26 | PHX 131 @ MEM 105 | PHX |
| 2026-01-07 | 2025-26 | PHX 117 @ MEM 98 | PHX |
| 2025-10-29 | 2025-26 | MEM 114 @ PHX 113 | MEM |
| 2025-03-10 | 2024-25 | PHX 118 @ MEM 120 | MEM |
| 2025-02-25 | 2024-25 | PHX 148 @ MEM 151 | MEM |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works