MEM
POR
Memphis Grizzlies @ Portland Trail Blazers
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
PORPortland Trail Blazers
56% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 56% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Trail Blazers can win
- Home court: the Trail Blazers play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Simulation: the Trail Blazers win 5,630 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Trail Blazers 2nd (30.9%), Grizzlies 17th (25.2%).
- Body clock: the Grizzlies cross 2 time zones.
- Strength: the Trail Blazers rank 2nd of 30 in offensive rebounding (share of misses) (30.9%).
Disadvantages Why Trail Blazers may not
- Upset odds: the Grizzlies win 4,370 of 10,000 simulations (44%). A 56% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Grizzlies 18th (14.5), Trail Blazers 30th (16.3).
- Three-point shooting: Grizzlies 17th (35.5%), Trail Blazers 28th (34.1%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Trail Blazers lose by 15 or more.
- Weak spot: the Trail Blazers rank 30th of 30 in ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions) (16.3).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | POR -1.9 |
| Total points | n/a | 230.9 |
| Win chance | MEM n/a · POR n/a | MEM 44% · POR 56% |
| Fair moneyline | MEM +129 · POR -129 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Trail Blazers 117, Grizzlies 115.
- 80% of simulations land between Grizzlies by 15 and Trail Blazers by 19.
Side by side
| MEM | POR | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-0 | Record | 3-1 |
| -4.8 22 | Net rating | -0.5 18 |
| 110.2 23 | Offensive rating | 110.9 21 |
| 114.9 22 | Defensive rating | 111.4 12 |
| 53.3% 23 | Effective FG% | 53.2% 24 |
| 55.8% 26 | Opponent eFG% | 54.1% 12 |
| 14.5 18 | Turnovers per 100 | 16.3 30 |
| 25.2% 17 | Offensive rebound % | 30.9% 2 |
| 35.5% 17 | 3-point % | 34.1% 28 |
| 104.3 7 | Pace | 103.7 11 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-29 | 2026-27 | MEM 124 @ POR 103 | MEM |
| 2026-03-04 | 2025-26 | POR 122 @ MEM 114 | POR |
| 2026-02-07 | 2025-26 | MEM 115 @ POR 122 | POR |
| 2026-02-06 | 2025-26 | MEM 115 @ POR 135 | POR |
| 2025-12-07 | 2025-26 | POR 96 @ MEM 119 | MEM |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works