MEM
SAC
Memphis Grizzlies @ Sacramento Kings
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
MEMMemphis Grizzlies
71% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 71% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Grizzlies can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 6.2 points to the Grizzlies in our ratings.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Grizzlies +12.0, Kings -16.6.
- Simulation: the Grizzlies win 7,110 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 2.8 points to the Grizzlies in our ratings.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Grizzlies 22nd (-4.8), Kings 29th (-10.1).
Disadvantages Why Grizzlies may not
- Home court: the Kings play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Upset odds: the Kings win 2,890 of 10,000 simulations (29%). A 71% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Grizzlies lose by 9 or more.
- Body clock: the Grizzlies cross 2 time zones.
- Weak spot: the Grizzlies rank 29th of 30 in defensive rebounding (share of misses) (71.0%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | MEM -7.3 |
| Total points | n/a | 232.7 |
| Win chance | MEM n/a · SAC n/a | MEM 71% · SAC 29% |
| Fair moneyline | MEM -245 · SAC +245 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Kings 113, Grizzlies 120.
- 80% of simulations land between Grizzlies by 23 and Kings by 9.
Side by side
| MEM | SAC | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-0 | Record | 0-5 |
| -4.8 22 | Net rating | -10.1 29 |
| 110.2 23 | Offensive rating | 108.3 28 |
| 114.9 22 | Defensive rating | 118.5 28 |
| 53.3% 23 | Effective FG% | 52.4% 29 |
| 55.8% 26 | Opponent eFG% | 57.3% 29 |
| 14.5 18 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.1 14 |
| 25.2% 17 | Offensive rebound % | 25.8% 14 |
| 35.5% 17 | 3-point % | 33.8% 30 |
| 104.3 7 | Pace | 102.4 16 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | 2026-27 | MEM 123 @ SAC 112 | MEM |
| 2026-02-23 | 2025-26 | SAC 123 @ MEM 114 | SAC |
| 2026-02-04 | 2025-26 | MEM 129 @ SAC 125 | MEM |
| 2025-11-30 | 2025-26 | MEM 115 @ SAC 107 | MEM |
| 2025-11-20 | 2025-26 | SAC 96 @ MEM 137 | MEM |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works