MEM
SAS
Memphis Grizzlies @ San Antonio Spurs
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
SASSan Antonio Spurs
70% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 70% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Spurs can win
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Spurs 2nd (+7.7), Grizzlies 22nd (-4.8).
- The Spurs' shooting (55.1% eFG%, 8th in the NBA) meets a Grizzlies defense that ranks 26th.
- Simulation: the Spurs win 6,950 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.0 points to the Spurs in our ratings.
- The Spurs' offense (115.2 points per 100 possessions, 5th in the NBA) meets a Grizzlies defense that ranks 22nd.
Disadvantages Why Spurs may not
- Upset odds: the Grizzlies win 3,050 of 10,000 simulations (31%). A 70% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Grizzlies 8th (14.9), Spurs 25th (13.0).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Spurs lose by 10 or more.
- Weak spot: the Spurs rank 25th of 30 in turnovers forced per 100 possessions (13.0).
- Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three can swing an NBA game by 15 points.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | SAS -6.6 |
| Total points | n/a | 228.6 |
| Win chance | MEM n/a · SAS n/a | MEM 30% · SAS 70% |
| Fair moneyline | MEM +228 · SAS -228 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Spurs 118, Grizzlies 111.
- 80% of simulations land between Grizzlies by 10 and Spurs by 23.
Side by side
| MEM | SAS | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-0 | Record | 3-2 |
| -4.8 22 | Net rating | +7.7 2 |
| 110.2 23 | Offensive rating | 115.2 5 |
| 114.9 22 | Defensive rating | 107.5 3 |
| 53.3% 23 | Effective FG% | 55.1% 8 |
| 55.8% 26 | Opponent eFG% | 51.4% 2 |
| 14.5 18 | Turnovers per 100 | 13.3 6 |
| 25.2% 17 | Offensive rebound % | 26.4% 10 |
| 35.5% 17 | 3-point % | 35.8% 14 |
| 104.3 7 | Pace | 102.5 15 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-25 | 2025-26 | SAS 123 @ MEM 98 | SAS |
| 2026-01-06 | 2025-26 | SAS 105 @ MEM 106 | MEM |
| 2025-12-02 | 2025-26 | MEM 119 @ SAS 126 | SAS |
| 2025-11-18 | 2025-26 | MEM 101 @ SAS 111 | SAS |
| 2025-03-01 | 2024-25 | SAS 130 @ MEM 128 | SAS |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works