MEM

Memphis Grizzlies @ Utah Jazz

Any-day matchup · ratings as of Oct 30, 7:50 PM ET

UTA

Our pick

MEMMemphis Grizzlies

62% to win

A probability, not a promise. A 62% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.

AZMango model

MEM 62%UTA 38%

No market price for this matchup yet, so there is nothing to compare against.

Advantages Why Grizzlies can win

Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Grizzlies +12.0, Jazz -7.8.
Recent scoring margins: worth about 4.2 points to the Grizzlies in our ratings.
Simulation: the Grizzlies win 6,170 of 10,000 simulated games.
Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 1.6 points to the Grizzlies in our ratings.
The Grizzlies' shooting (53.3% eFG%, 23rd in the NBA) meets a Jazz defense that ranks 30th.

Disadvantages Why Grizzlies may not

Upset odds: the Jazz win 3,830 of 10,000 simulations (38%). A 62% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Home court: the Jazz play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
The Jazz' shooting (53.6% eFG%, 20th in the NBA) meets a Grizzlies defense that ranks 26th.
Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Grizzlies lose by 13 or more.
Weak spot: the Grizzlies rank 29th of 30 in defensive rebounding (share of misses) (71.0%).

The line and our numbers

	Market	AZMango
Spread	No line yet	MEM -4.1
Total points	n/a	234.2
Win chance	MEM n/a · UTA n/a	MEM 62% · UTA 38%
Fair moneyline		MEM -161 · UTA +161

No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.

10,000 simulated games, possession by possession

Typical score: Jazz 115, Grizzlies 119.
80% of simulations land between Grizzlies by 20 and Jazz by 13.

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Side by side

MEM		UTA
5-0	Record	1-4
-4.8 22	Net rating	-7.9 27
110.2 23	Offensive rating	111.1 20
114.9 22	Defensive rating	119.0 29
53.3% 23	Effective FG%	53.6% 20
55.8% 26	Opponent eFG%	57.6% 30
14.5 18	Turnovers per 100	14.8 21
25.2% 17	Offensive rebound %	26.3% 12
35.5% 17	3-point %	34.4% 24
104.3 7	Pace	105.6 2

Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).

Last 5 meetings

Date	Season	Score	Winner
2026-10-26	2026-27	MEM 110 @ UTA 105	MEM
2026-10-21	2026-27	UTA 103 @ MEM 123	MEM
2026-04-10	2025-26	MEM 101 @ UTA 147	UTA
2026-02-20	2025-26	UTA 114 @ MEM 123	MEM
2025-12-23	2025-26	MEM 137 @ UTA 128	MEM

No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.

Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works

Player matchups

MEM

Ty Jerome G

21.2 pts, 2.9 reb, 5.7 ast in 24.6 min, 47% FG

vs a defense ranked 29 of 30 (opponent eFG% 57.6%)

MEM

Cameron Boozer F

15.4 pts, 10.8 reb, 6.2 ast in 32 min, 32% FG

vs a defense ranked 29 of 30 (opponent eFG% 57.6%)

MEM

Santi Aldama F

14 pts, 6.7 reb, 2.9 ast in 27.8 min, 48% FG

vs a defense ranked 29 of 30 (opponent eFG% 57.6%)

UTA

Lauri Markkanen F

25.8 pts, 6.8 reb, 2.1 ast in 33.9 min, 47% FG

vs a defense ranked 22 of 30 (opponent eFG% 55.8%)

UTA

Keyonte George G

23.7 pts, 3.7 reb, 6.2 ast in 33.1 min, 46% FG

vs a defense ranked 22 of 30 (opponent eFG% 55.8%)

UTA

Jaren Jackson Jr. F

18.9 pts, 4.7 reb, 2.3 ast in 25.1 min, 49% FG

vs a defense ranked 22 of 30 (opponent eFG% 55.8%)

Per-game averages, 2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons. Ordered by Game Score.

Last time they met

The Grizzlies beat the Jazz 110-105 on the road (2026-10-26). The difference: they made 16 threes to 10, a 18-point swing and they shot 53% effective field goal percentage to 47%.