MEM
WAS
Memphis Grizzlies @ Washington Wizards
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
MEMMemphis Grizzlies
62% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 62% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Grizzlies can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Grizzlies +12.0, Wizards -2.2.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 4.0 points to the Grizzlies in our ratings.
- Simulation: the Grizzlies win 6,210 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Grizzlies 22nd (-4.8), Wizards 30th (-10.9).
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 1.8 points to the Grizzlies in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why Grizzlies may not
- Upset odds: the Wizards win 3,790 of 10,000 simulations (38%). A 62% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Home court: the Wizards play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- The Wizards' shooting (53.5% eFG%, 21st in the NBA) meets a Grizzlies defense that ranks 26th.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Grizzlies lose by 13 or more.
- Weak spot: the Grizzlies rank 29th of 30 in defensive rebounding (share of misses) (71.0%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | MEM -4 |
| Total points | n/a | 232.2 |
| Win chance | MEM n/a · WAS n/a | MEM 62% · WAS 38% |
| Fair moneyline | MEM -164 · WAS +164 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Wizards 114, Grizzlies 119.
- 80% of simulations land between Grizzlies by 21 and Wizards by 13.
Side by side
| MEM | WAS | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-0 | Record | 2-3 |
| -4.8 22 | Net rating | -10.9 30 |
| 110.2 23 | Offensive rating | 108.2 29 |
| 114.9 22 | Defensive rating | 119.2 30 |
| 53.3% 23 | Effective FG% | 53.5% 21 |
| 55.8% 26 | Opponent eFG% | 55.9% 27 |
| 14.5 18 | Turnovers per 100 | 15.0 23 |
| 25.2% 17 | Offensive rebound % | 23.9% 22 |
| 35.5% 17 | 3-point % | 35.5% 18 |
| 104.3 7 | Pace | 104.3 5 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-28 | 2025-26 | MEM 112 @ WAS 116 | WAS |
| 2025-12-20 | 2025-26 | WAS 130 @ MEM 122 | WAS |
| 2024-12-08 | 2024-25 | MEM 140 @ WAS 112 | MEM |
| 2024-11-08 | 2024-25 | WAS 104 @ MEM 128 | MEM |
| 2024-03-12 | 2023-24 | WAS 97 @ MEM 109 | MEM |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works