MIA

Miami Heat @ Brooklyn Nets

Any-day matchup · ratings as of Oct 30, 7:50 PM ET

BKN

Our pick

MIAMiami Heat

57% to win

A probability, not a promise. A 57% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.

AZMango model

MIA 57%BKN 43%

No market price for this matchup yet, so there is nothing to compare against.

Advantages Why Heat can win

Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Heat 12th (+1.6), Nets 28th (-9.9).
Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.6 points to the Heat in our ratings.
The Heat' offense (113.4 points per 100 possessions, 11th in the NBA) meets a Nets defense that ranks 26th.
Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Heat 4th (12.8), Nets 29th (15.8).
The Heat' shooting (54.1% eFG%, 17th in the NBA) meets a Nets defense that ranks 28th.

Disadvantages Why Heat may not

Upset odds: the Nets win 4,270 of 10,000 simulations (43%). A 57% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Home court: the Nets play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Heat lose by 14 or more.
Weak spot: the Heat rank 22nd of 30 in points allowed per game (118.8).
Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three can swing an NBA game by 15 points.

The line and our numbers

	Market	AZMango
Spread	No line yet	MIA -2.4
Total points	n/a	236.3
Win chance	MIA n/a · BKN n/a	MIA 57% · BKN 43%
Fair moneyline		MIA -134 · BKN +134

No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.

10,000 simulated games, possession by possession

Typical score: Nets 117, Heat 120.
80% of simulations land between Heat by 19 and Nets by 14.

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Side by side

MIA		BKN
1-4	Record	0-4
+1.6 12	Net rating	-9.9 28
113.4 11	Offensive rating	105.9 30
111.8 14	Defensive rating	115.9 26
54.1% 17	Effective FG%	52.0% 30
54.2% 14	Opponent eFG%	57.2% 28
12.8 4	Turnovers per 100	15.8 29
25.2% 16	Offensive rebound %	23.8% 23
35.9% 12	3-point %	34.2% 27
106.3 1	Pace	100.4 24

Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).

Last 5 meetings

Date	Season	Score	Winner
2026-03-05	2025-26	BKN 110 @ MIA 126	MIA
2026-03-03	2025-26	BKN 98 @ MIA 124	MIA
2025-12-18	2025-26	MIA 106 @ BKN 95	MIA
2025-02-07	2024-25	MIA 86 @ BKN 102	BKN
2025-01-25	2024-25	MIA 106 @ BKN 97	MIA

No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.

Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works

Player matchups

MIA

Giannis Antetokounmpo F

27.6 pts, 11.2 reb, 4.6 ast in 31.6 min, 57% FG

vs a defense ranked 26 of 30 (opponent eFG% 57.2%)

MIA

Bam Adebayo C

19.6 pts, 9.8 reb, 3.2 ast in 32 min, 44% FG

vs a defense ranked 26 of 30 (opponent eFG% 57.2%)

MIA

Andrew Wiggins F

15.2 pts, 4.8 reb, 2.6 ast in 30.3 min, 48% FG

vs a defense ranked 26 of 30 (opponent eFG% 57.2%)

BKN

Michael Porter Jr. F

24.1 pts, 7.1 reb, 2.9 ast in 32.5 min, 46% FG

vs a defense ranked 14 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.2%)

BKN

Julius Randle F

22.5 pts, 7.5 reb, 5.8 ast in 35.2 min, 48% FG

vs a defense ranked 14 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.2%)

BKN

Nic Claxton C

11.7 pts, 6.9 reb, 3.7 ast in 27.8 min, 57% FG

vs a defense ranked 14 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.2%)

Per-game averages, 2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons. Ordered by Game Score.

Last time they met

The Heat beat the Nets 126-110 at home (2026-03-05). The difference: they shot 58% effective field goal percentage to 52% and they committed 6 fewer turnovers (14 to 20). Tyler Herro led the Heat with 25 points.