MIA
BOS
Miami Heat @ Boston Celtics
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
BOSBoston Celtics
70% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 70% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Celtics can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Celtics +8.0, Heat -7.8.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.7 points to the Celtics in our ratings.
- Simulation: the Celtics win 7,030 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home court: the Celtics play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- The Celtics' offense (116.6 points per 100 possessions, 2nd in the NBA) meets a Heat defense that ranks 14th.
Disadvantages Why Celtics may not
- Upset odds: the Heat win 2,970 of 10,000 simulations (30%). A 70% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Celtics lose by 10 or more.
- Weak spot: the Celtics rank 29th of 30 in getting to the line (free throws per shot) (0.17).
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Heat 17th (14.2), Celtics 27th (12.8).
- Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Heat 16th (0.21), Celtics 29th (0.17).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | BOS -7.3 |
| Total points | n/a | 232.6 |
| Win chance | MIA n/a · BOS n/a | MIA 30% · BOS 70% |
| Fair moneyline | MIA +236 · BOS -236 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Celtics 120, Heat 113.
- 80% of simulations land between Heat by 10 and Celtics by 24.
Side by side
| MIA | BOS | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 3-1 |
| +1.6 12 | Net rating | +7.5 4 |
| 113.4 11 | Offensive rating | 116.6 2 |
| 111.8 14 | Defensive rating | 109.1 5 |
| 54.1% 17 | Effective FG% | 55.1% 10 |
| 54.2% 14 | Opponent eFG% | 52.2% 4 |
| 12.8 4 | Turnovers per 100 | 12.7 2 |
| 25.2% 16 | Offensive rebound % | 29.0% 6 |
| 35.9% 12 | 3-point % | 36.5% 8 |
| 106.3 1 | Pace | 98.1 30 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-01 | 2025-26 | BOS 147 @ MIA 129 | BOS |
| 2026-02-06 | 2025-26 | MIA 96 @ BOS 98 | BOS |
| 2026-01-15 | 2025-26 | BOS 119 @ MIA 114 | BOS |
| 2025-12-19 | 2025-26 | MIA 116 @ BOS 129 | BOS |
| 2025-04-02 | 2024-25 | MIA 124 @ BOS 103 | MIA |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works