MIA

Miami Heat @ Charlotte Hornets

Any-day matchup · ratings as of Oct 30, 7:50 PM ET

CHA

Our pick

CHACharlotte Hornets

58% to win

A probability, not a promise. A 58% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.

AZMango model

MIA 42%CHA 58%

No market price for this matchup yet, so there is nothing to compare against.

Advantages Why Hornets can win

Simulation: the Hornets win 5,800 of 10,000 simulated games.
Home court: the Hornets play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.3 points to the Hornets in our ratings.
The Hornets' offense (114.6 points per 100 possessions, 7th in the NBA) meets a Heat defense that ranks 14th.
Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Hornets 4th (30.5%), Heat 16th (25.2%).

Disadvantages Why Hornets may not

Upset odds: the Heat win 4,200 of 10,000 simulations (42%). A 58% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Heat 4th (12.8), Hornets 28th (15.6).
Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Hornets lose by 14 or more.
Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Heat 17th (14.2), Hornets 28th (12.7).
Weak spot: the Hornets rank 28th of 30 in ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions) (15.6).

The line and our numbers

	Market	AZMango
Spread	No line yet	CHA -2.9
Total points	n/a	228.5
Win chance	MIA n/a · CHA n/a	MIA 42% · CHA 58%
Fair moneyline		MIA +138 · CHA -138

No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.

10,000 simulated games, possession by possession

Typical score: Hornets 116, Heat 113.
80% of simulations land between Heat by 14 and Hornets by 19.

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Side by side

MIA		CHA
1-4	Record	3-2
+1.6 12	Net rating	+3.7 8
113.4 11	Offensive rating	114.6 7
111.8 14	Defensive rating	110.9 10
54.1% 17	Effective FG%	54.7% 13
54.2% 14	Opponent eFG%	54.0% 10
12.8 4	Turnovers per 100	15.6 28
25.2% 16	Offensive rebound %	30.5% 4
35.9% 12	3-point %	37.2% 4
106.3 1	Pace	100.3 25

Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).

Last 5 meetings

Date	Season	Score	Winner
2026-10-24	2026-27	MIA 110 @ CHA 115	CHA
2026-04-14	2025-26	MIA 126 @ CHA 127	CHA
2026-03-17	2025-26	MIA 106 @ CHA 136	CHA
2026-03-06	2025-26	MIA 128 @ CHA 120	MIA
2025-11-07	2025-26	CHA 108 @ MIA 126	MIA

No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.

Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works

Player matchups

MIA

Giannis Antetokounmpo F

27.6 pts, 11.2 reb, 4.6 ast in 31.6 min, 57% FG

vs a defense ranked 10 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.0%)

MIA

Bam Adebayo C

19.6 pts, 9.8 reb, 3.2 ast in 32 min, 44% FG

vs a defense ranked 10 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.0%)

MIA

Andrew Wiggins F

15.2 pts, 4.8 reb, 2.6 ast in 30.3 min, 48% FG

vs a defense ranked 10 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.0%)

CHA

Kon Knueppel G

18.3 pts, 5.3 reb, 3.3 ast in 31.5 min, 47% FG

vs a defense ranked 14 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.2%)

CHA

Brandon Miller F

20.5 pts, 5 reb, 3.2 ast in 30.6 min, 43% FG

vs a defense ranked 14 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.2%)

CHA

Grayson Allen G

15.2 pts, 3 reb, 3 ast in 28.2 min, 44% FG

vs a defense ranked 14 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.2%)

Per-game averages, 2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons. Ordered by Game Score.

Last time they met

The Hornets beat the Heat 115-110 at home (2026-10-24). The difference: they won the boards 46 to 37 and they made 16 threes to 13, a 9-point swing. Brandon Miller led the Hornets with 34 points.