MIA
CLE
Miami Heat @ Cleveland Cavaliers
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
CLECleveland Cavaliers
63% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 63% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Cavaliers can win
- Simulation: the Cavaliers win 6,300 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Cavaliers +1.0, Heat -7.8.
- Home court: the Cavaliers play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.9 points to the Cavaliers in our ratings.
- The Cavaliers' shooting (55.5% eFG%, 7th in the NBA) meets a Heat defense that ranks 14th.
Disadvantages Why Cavaliers may not
- Upset odds: the Heat win 3,700 of 10,000 simulations (37%). A 63% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Heat 4th (12.8), Cavaliers 15th (14.2).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Cavaliers lose by 12 or more.
- Defensive rebounding (share of misses): Heat 8th (74.6%), Cavaliers 18th (73.8%).
- Three-point shooting: Heat 12th (35.9%), Cavaliers 19th (35.4%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | CLE -4.6 |
| Total points | n/a | 236.7 |
| Win chance | MIA n/a · CLE n/a | MIA 37% · CLE 63% |
| Fair moneyline | MIA +170 · CLE -170 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Cavaliers 121, Heat 116.
- 80% of simulations land between Heat by 12 and Cavaliers by 21.
Side by side
| MIA | CLE | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 3-2 |
| +1.6 12 | Net rating | +2.7 10 |
| 113.4 11 | Offensive rating | 114.5 9 |
| 111.8 14 | Defensive rating | 111.8 15 |
| 54.1% 17 | Effective FG% | 55.5% 7 |
| 54.2% 14 | Opponent eFG% | 54.2% 15 |
| 12.8 4 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.2 15 |
| 25.2% 16 | Offensive rebound % | 27.0% 8 |
| 35.9% 12 | 3-point % | 35.4% 19 |
| 106.3 1 | Pace | 102.6 14 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-27 | 2025-26 | MIA 128 @ CLE 149 | CLE |
| 2026-03-25 | 2025-26 | MIA 120 @ CLE 103 | MIA |
| 2025-11-12 | 2025-26 | CLE 130 @ MIA 116 | CLE |
| 2025-11-10 | 2025-26 | CLE 138 @ MIA 140 | MIA |
| 2025-04-28 | Playoffs | CLE 138 @ MIA 83 | CLE |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works