MIA

Miami Heat @ Dallas Mavericks

Any-day matchup · ratings as of Oct 30, 7:50 PM ET

DAL

Our pick

DALDallas Mavericks

61% to win

A probability, not a promise. A 61% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.

AZMango model

MIA 39%DAL 61%

No market price for this matchup yet, so there is nothing to compare against.

Advantages Why Mavericks can win

Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Mavericks +2.0, Heat -7.8.
Simulation: the Mavericks win 6,120 of 10,000 simulated games.
Home court: the Mavericks play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.2 points to the Mavericks in our ratings.
Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 0.6 points to the Mavericks in our ratings.

Disadvantages Why Mavericks may not

Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Heat 12th (+1.6), Mavericks 23rd (-4.8).
Upset odds: the Heat win 3,880 of 10,000 simulations (39%). A 61% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
The Heat' offense (113.4 points per 100 possessions, 11th in the NBA) meets a Mavericks defense that ranks 20th.
Point differential per game: Heat 12th (+1.7), Mavericks 23rd (-5.1).
Three-point shooting: Heat 12th (35.9%), Mavericks 26th (34.4%).

The line and our numbers

	Market	AZMango
Spread	No line yet	DAL -3.5
Total points	n/a	236.7
Win chance	MIA n/a · DAL n/a	MIA 39% · DAL 61%
Fair moneyline		MIA +158 · DAL -158

No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.

10,000 simulated games, possession by possession

Typical score: Mavericks 120, Heat 117.
80% of simulations land between Heat by 13 and Mavericks by 20.

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Side by side

MIA		DAL
1-4	Record	3-2
+1.6 12	Net rating	-4.8 23
113.4 11	Offensive rating	108.7 26
111.8 14	Defensive rating	113.5 20
54.1% 17	Effective FG%	52.9% 25
54.2% 14	Opponent eFG%	54.5% 17
12.8 4	Turnovers per 100	14.0 13
25.2% 16	Offensive rebound %	23.4% 25
35.9% 12	3-point %	34.4% 26
106.3 1	Pace	105.0 4

Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).

Last 5 meetings

Date	Season	Score	Winner
2026-10-26	2026-27	DAL 113 @ MIA 109	DAL
2025-12-03	2025-26	MIA 108 @ DAL 118	DAL
2025-11-24	2025-26	DAL 102 @ MIA 106	MIA
2025-02-13	2024-25	MIA 113 @ DAL 118	DAL
2024-11-24	2024-25	DAL 118 @ MIA 123	MIA

No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.

Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works

Player matchups

MIA

Giannis Antetokounmpo F

27.6 pts, 11.2 reb, 4.6 ast in 31.6 min, 57% FG

vs a defense ranked 20 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.5%)

MIA

Bam Adebayo C

19.6 pts, 9.8 reb, 3.2 ast in 32 min, 44% FG

vs a defense ranked 20 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.5%)

MIA

Andrew Wiggins F

15.2 pts, 4.8 reb, 2.6 ast in 30.3 min, 48% FG

vs a defense ranked 20 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.5%)

DAL

Cooper Flagg F

21.3 pts, 6.6 reb, 4.6 ast in 33.4 min, 47% FG

vs a defense ranked 14 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.2%)

DAL

Kyrie Irving G

18 pts, 3.2 reb, 3.8 ast in 27.2 min, 49% FG

vs a defense ranked 14 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.2%)

DAL

Naji Marshall F

15.2 pts, 4.6 reb, 3.4 ast in 29.4 min, 51% FG

vs a defense ranked 14 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.2%)

Per-game averages, 2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons. Ordered by Game Score.

Last time they met

The Mavericks beat the Heat 113-109 on the road (2026-10-26). The difference: they won the boards 51 to 42. Cooper Flagg led the Mavericks with 29 points.