MIA
DEN
Miami Heat @ Denver Nuggets
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
DENDenver Nuggets
63% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 63% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Nuggets can win
- Simulation: the Nuggets win 6,320 of 10,000 simulated games.
- The Nuggets' shooting (56.9% eFG%, 2nd in the NBA) meets a Heat defense that ranks 14th.
- The Nuggets' offense (118.2 points per 100 possessions, 1st in the NBA) meets a Heat defense that ranks 14th.
- Home court: the Nuggets play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.6 points to the Nuggets in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why Nuggets may not
- Upset odds: the Heat win 3,680 of 10,000 simulations (37%). A 63% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- The Heat' offense (113.4 points per 100 possessions, 11th in the NBA) meets a Nuggets defense that ranks 21st.
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Heat 17th (14.2), Nuggets 30th (11.9).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Nuggets lose by 12 or more.
- Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Heat 16th (25.2%), Nuggets 28th (23.3%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DEN -4.2 |
| Total points | n/a | 235.9 |
| Win chance | MIA n/a · DEN n/a | MIA 37% · DEN 63% |
| Fair moneyline | MIA +171 · DEN -171 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Nuggets 120, Heat 116.
- 80% of simulations land between Heat by 12 and Nuggets by 21.
Side by side
| MIA | DEN | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 2-2 |
| +1.6 12 | Net rating | +4.1 7 |
| 113.4 11 | Offensive rating | 118.2 1 |
| 111.8 14 | Defensive rating | 114.1 21 |
| 54.1% 17 | Effective FG% | 56.9% 2 |
| 54.2% 14 | Opponent eFG% | 54.1% 13 |
| 12.8 4 | Turnovers per 100 | 12.7 3 |
| 25.2% 16 | Offensive rebound % | 23.3% 28 |
| 35.9% 12 | 3-point % | 38.8% 1 |
| 106.3 1 | Pace | 102.1 20 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-29 | 2025-26 | DEN 123 @ MIA 147 | MIA |
| 2025-11-05 | 2025-26 | MIA 112 @ DEN 122 | DEN |
| 2025-01-17 | 2024-25 | DEN 133 @ MIA 113 | DEN |
| 2024-11-08 | 2024-25 | MIA 122 @ DEN 135 | DEN |
| 2024-03-13 | 2023-24 | DEN 100 @ MIA 88 | DEN |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works