MIA
DET
Miami Heat @ Detroit Pistons
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
DETDetroit Pistons
74% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 74% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Pistons can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 4.4 points to the Pistons in our ratings.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Pistons +6.4, Heat -7.8.
- Simulation: the Pistons win 7,380 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 2.3 points to the Pistons in our ratings.
- Home court: the Pistons play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
Disadvantages Why Pistons may not
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Heat 4th (12.8), Pistons 24th (15.0).
- Upset odds: the Heat win 2,620 of 10,000 simulations (26%). A 74% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Pistons lose by 8 or more.
- Weak spot: the Pistons rank 24th of 30 in ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions) (15.0).
- Defensive rebounding (share of misses): Heat 8th (74.6%), Pistons 15th (74.0%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DET -8.4 |
| Total points | n/a | 229.4 |
| Win chance | MIA n/a · DET n/a | MIA 26% · DET 74% |
| Fair moneyline | MIA +282 · DET -282 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Pistons 119, Heat 110.
- 80% of simulations land between Heat by 8 and Pistons by 25.
Side by side
| MIA | DET | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 4-1 |
| +1.6 12 | Net rating | +7.0 5 |
| 113.4 11 | Offensive rating | 113.2 12 |
| 111.8 14 | Defensive rating | 106.2 2 |
| 54.1% 17 | Effective FG% | 54.2% 16 |
| 54.2% 14 | Opponent eFG% | 51.4% 1 |
| 12.8 4 | Turnovers per 100 | 15.0 24 |
| 25.2% 16 | Offensive rebound % | 30.8% 3 |
| 35.9% 12 | 3-point % | 35.8% 15 |
| 106.3 1 | Pace | 102.1 19 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-23 | 2026-27 | DET 128 @ MIA 111 | DET |
| 2026-03-08 | 2025-26 | DET 110 @ MIA 121 | MIA |
| 2026-01-01 | 2025-26 | MIA 118 @ DET 112 | MIA |
| 2025-11-29 | 2025-26 | DET 138 @ MIA 135 | DET |
| 2025-03-19 | 2024-25 | DET 116 @ MIA 113 | DET |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works