MIA
GSW
Miami Heat @ Golden State Warriors
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
GSWGolden State Warriors
59% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 59% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Warriors can win
- Simulation: the Warriors win 5,880 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home court: the Warriors play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Warriors -1.8, Heat -7.8.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 0.9 points to the Warriors in our ratings.
- Body clock: the Heat cross 3 time zones.
Disadvantages Why Warriors may not
- Upset odds: the Heat win 4,120 of 10,000 simulations (41%). A 59% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Heat 4th (12.8), Warriors 27th (15.5).
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Heat 12th (+1.6), Warriors 19th (-0.7).
- The Heat' shooting (54.1% eFG%, 17th in the NBA) meets a Warriors defense that ranks 24th.
- The Heat' offense (113.4 points per 100 possessions, 11th in the NBA) meets a Warriors defense that ranks 17th.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | GSW -3 |
| Total points | n/a | 237.1 |
| Win chance | MIA n/a · GSW n/a | MIA 41% · GSW 59% |
| Fair moneyline | MIA +143 · GSW -143 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Warriors 120, Heat 117.
- 80% of simulations land between Heat by 14 and Warriors by 20.
Side by side
| MIA | GSW | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 2-3 |
| +1.6 12 | Net rating | -0.7 19 |
| 113.4 11 | Offensive rating | 112.2 16 |
| 111.8 14 | Defensive rating | 112.9 17 |
| 54.1% 17 | Effective FG% | 55.0% 12 |
| 54.2% 14 | Opponent eFG% | 55.6% 24 |
| 12.8 4 | Turnovers per 100 | 15.5 27 |
| 25.2% 16 | Offensive rebound % | 26.3% 11 |
| 35.9% 12 | 3-point % | 35.7% 16 |
| 106.3 1 | Pace | 102.3 17 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-19 | 2025-26 | MIA 112 @ GSW 135 | GSW |
| 2025-11-19 | 2025-26 | GSW 96 @ MIA 110 | MIA |
| 2025-03-25 | 2024-25 | GSW 86 @ MIA 112 | MIA |
| 2025-01-07 | 2024-25 | MIA 114 @ GSW 98 | MIA |
| 2024-03-26 | 2023-24 | GSW 113 @ MIA 92 | GSW |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works