MIA
HOU
Miami Heat @ Houston Rockets
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
HOUHouston Rockets
78% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 78% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why Rockets can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 5.4 points to the Rockets in our ratings.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Rockets +14.2, Heat -7.8.
- Simulation: the Rockets win 7,780 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 3.0 points to the Rockets in our ratings.
- Home court: the Rockets play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
Disadvantages Why Rockets may not
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Heat 4th (12.8), Rockets 26th (15.4).
- Upset odds: the Heat win 2,220 of 10,000 simulations (22%). A 78% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Rockets lose by 7 or more.
- Weak spot: the Rockets rank 26th of 30 in ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions) (15.4).
- Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three can swing an NBA game by 15 points.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | HOU -10.1 |
| Total points | n/a | 232.7 |
| Win chance | MIA n/a · HOU n/a | MIA 22% · HOU 78% |
| Fair moneyline | MIA +351 · HOU -351 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Rockets 121, Heat 111.
- 80% of simulations land between Heat by 7 and Rockets by 26.
Side by side
| MIA | HOU | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 5-0 |
| +1.6 12 | Net rating | +5.2 6 |
| 113.4 11 | Offensive rating | 114.6 8 |
| 111.8 14 | Defensive rating | 109.4 6 |
| 54.1% 17 | Effective FG% | 54.0% 18 |
| 54.2% 14 | Opponent eFG% | 53.0% 6 |
| 12.8 4 | Turnovers per 100 | 15.4 26 |
| 25.2% 16 | Offensive rebound % | 34.3% 1 |
| 35.9% 12 | 3-point % | 36.2% 11 |
| 106.3 1 | Pace | 100.0 27 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-21 | 2025-26 | MIA 122 @ HOU 123 | HOU |
| 2026-02-28 | 2025-26 | HOU 105 @ MIA 115 | MIA |
| 2025-03-21 | 2024-25 | HOU 102 @ MIA 98 | HOU |
| 2024-12-29 | 2024-25 | MIA 104 @ HOU 100 | MIA |
| 2024-04-05 | 2023-24 | MIA 119 @ HOU 104 | MIA |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works