MIA
IND
Miami Heat @ Indiana Pacers
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
INDIndiana Pacers
51% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 51% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why Pacers can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Pacers +0.2, Heat -7.8.
- Home court: the Pacers play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Simulation: the Pacers win 5,100 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Relative strength: the Pacers rank 12th of 30 in ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions) (14.0).
- Relative strength: the Pacers rank 14th of 30 in defensive rebounding (share of misses) (74.0%).
Disadvantages Why Pacers may not
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Heat 12th (+1.6), Pacers 26th (-7.2).
- Upset odds: the Heat win 4,900 of 10,000 simulations (49%). A 51% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- The Heat' offense (113.4 points per 100 possessions, 11th in the NBA) meets a Pacers defense that ranks 24th.
- Point differential per game: Heat 12th (+1.7), Pacers 26th (-7.5).
- The Heat' shooting (54.1% eFG%, 17th in the NBA) meets a Pacers defense that ranks 22nd.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | IND -0.6 |
| Total points | n/a | 237 |
| Win chance | MIA n/a · IND n/a | MIA 49% · IND 51% |
| Fair moneyline | MIA +104 · IND -104 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Pacers 119, Heat 119.
- 80% of simulations land between Heat by 16 and Pacers by 17.
Side by side
| MIA | IND | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 2-3 |
| +1.6 12 | Net rating | -7.2 26 |
| 113.4 11 | Offensive rating | 108.4 27 |
| 111.8 14 | Defensive rating | 115.6 24 |
| 54.1% 17 | Effective FG% | 53.3% 22 |
| 54.2% 14 | Opponent eFG% | 55.4% 22 |
| 12.8 4 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.0 12 |
| 25.2% 16 | Offensive rebound % | 21.8% 29 |
| 35.9% 12 | 3-point % | 35.3% 20 |
| 106.3 1 | Pace | 103.9 9 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-29 | 2025-26 | MIA 118 @ IND 135 | IND |
| 2026-01-10 | 2025-26 | MIA 99 @ IND 123 | IND |
| 2025-12-27 | 2025-26 | IND 116 @ MIA 142 | MIA |
| 2025-02-28 | 2024-25 | IND 120 @ MIA 125 | MIA |
| 2025-01-02 | 2024-25 | IND 128 @ MIA 115 | IND |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works