MIA
LAC
Miami Heat @ LA Clippers
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
LACLA Clippers
62% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 62% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Clippers can win
- Simulation: the Clippers win 6,170 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home court: the Clippers play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- The Clippers' shooting (55.9% eFG%, 4th in the NBA) meets a Heat defense that ranks 14th.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Clippers -1.5, Heat -7.8.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.5 points to the Clippers in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why Clippers may not
- Upset odds: the Heat win 3,830 of 10,000 simulations (38%). A 62% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Heat 4th (12.8), Clippers 20th (14.7).
- The Heat' offense (113.4 points per 100 possessions, 11th in the NBA) meets a Clippers defense that ranks 18th.
- Defensive rebounding (share of misses): Heat 8th (74.6%), Clippers 25th (72.8%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Clippers lose by 13 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | LAC -3.7 |
| Total points | n/a | 231.4 |
| Win chance | MIA n/a · LAC n/a | MIA 38% · LAC 62% |
| Fair moneyline | MIA +161 · LAC -161 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Clippers 118, Heat 114.
- 80% of simulations land between Heat by 13 and Clippers by 21.
Side by side
| MIA | LAC | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 1-3 |
| +1.6 12 | Net rating | +0.9 15 |
| 113.4 11 | Offensive rating | 114.0 10 |
| 111.8 14 | Defensive rating | 113.0 18 |
| 54.1% 17 | Effective FG% | 55.9% 4 |
| 54.2% 14 | Opponent eFG% | 54.6% 18 |
| 12.8 4 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.7 20 |
| 25.2% 16 | Offensive rebound % | 23.8% 24 |
| 35.9% 12 | 3-point % | 36.9% 5 |
| 106.3 1 | Pace | 99.6 29 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-01 | 2025-26 | LAC 123 @ MIA 140 | MIA |
| 2025-11-03 | 2025-26 | MIA 120 @ LAC 119 | MIA |
| 2025-03-12 | 2024-25 | LAC 119 @ MIA 104 | LAC |
| 2025-01-13 | 2024-25 | MIA 98 @ LAC 109 | LAC |
| 2024-02-04 | 2023-24 | LAC 103 @ MIA 95 | LAC |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works