MIA
MEM
Miami Heat @ Memphis Grizzlies
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
MEMMemphis Grizzlies
63% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 63% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Grizzlies can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Grizzlies +12.0, Heat -7.8.
- Simulation: the Grizzlies win 6,300 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.2 points to the Grizzlies in our ratings.
- Home court: the Grizzlies play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 0.7 points to the Grizzlies in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why Grizzlies may not
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Heat 12th (+1.6), Grizzlies 22nd (-4.8).
- Upset odds: the Heat win 3,700 of 10,000 simulations (37%). A 63% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- The Heat' shooting (54.1% eFG%, 17th in the NBA) meets a Grizzlies defense that ranks 26th.
- The Heat' offense (113.4 points per 100 possessions, 11th in the NBA) meets a Grizzlies defense that ranks 22nd.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Heat 4th (12.8), Grizzlies 18th (14.5).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | MEM -4.6 |
| Total points | n/a | 235.5 |
| Win chance | MIA n/a · MEM n/a | MIA 37% · MEM 63% |
| Fair moneyline | MIA +170 · MEM -170 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Grizzlies 120, Heat 116.
- 80% of simulations land between Heat by 12 and Grizzlies by 21.
Side by side
| MIA | MEM | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 5-0 |
| +1.6 12 | Net rating | -4.8 22 |
| 113.4 11 | Offensive rating | 110.2 23 |
| 111.8 14 | Defensive rating | 114.9 22 |
| 54.1% 17 | Effective FG% | 53.3% 23 |
| 54.2% 14 | Opponent eFG% | 55.8% 26 |
| 12.8 4 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.5 18 |
| 25.2% 16 | Offensive rebound % | 25.2% 17 |
| 35.9% 12 | 3-point % | 35.5% 17 |
| 106.3 1 | Pace | 104.3 7 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-21 | 2025-26 | MEM 120 @ MIA 136 | MIA |
| 2025-10-24 | 2025-26 | MIA 146 @ MEM 114 | MIA |
| 2025-04-03 | 2024-25 | MEM 110 @ MIA 108 | MEM |
| 2025-03-15 | 2024-25 | MIA 91 @ MEM 125 | MEM |
| 2024-01-24 | 2023-24 | MEM 105 @ MIA 96 | MEM |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works