MIA
MIL
Miami Heat @ Milwaukee Bucks
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
MIAMiami Heat
57% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 57% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Heat can win
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Heat 12th (+1.6), Bucks 25th (-6.4).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.6 points to the Heat in our ratings.
- The Heat' offense (113.4 points per 100 possessions, 11th in the NBA) meets a Bucks defense that ranks 27th.
- Simulation: the Heat win 5,690 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Heat 4th (12.8), Bucks 25th (15.2).
Disadvantages Why Heat may not
- Upset odds: the Bucks win 4,310 of 10,000 simulations (43%). A 57% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- The Bucks' shooting (56.3% eFG%, 3rd in the NBA) meets a Heat defense that ranks 14th.
- Home court: the Bucks play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Heat lose by 14 or more.
- Three-point shooting: Bucks 2nd (38.4%), Heat 12th (35.9%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | MIA -2.4 |
| Total points | n/a | 236.4 |
| Win chance | MIA n/a · MIL n/a | MIA 57% · MIL 43% |
| Fair moneyline | MIA -132 · MIL +132 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Bucks 117, Heat 120.
- 80% of simulations land between Heat by 19 and Bucks by 14.
Side by side
| MIA | MIL | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 1-4 |
| +1.6 12 | Net rating | -6.4 25 |
| 113.4 11 | Offensive rating | 110.1 24 |
| 111.8 14 | Defensive rating | 116.5 27 |
| 54.1% 17 | Effective FG% | 56.3% 3 |
| 54.2% 14 | Opponent eFG% | 55.7% 25 |
| 12.8 4 | Turnovers per 100 | 15.2 25 |
| 25.2% 16 | Offensive rebound % | 21.7% 30 |
| 35.9% 12 | 3-point % | 38.4% 2 |
| 106.3 1 | Pace | 100.6 22 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-12 | 2025-26 | MIL 105 @ MIA 112 | MIA |
| 2026-02-24 | 2025-26 | MIA 117 @ MIL 128 | MIL |
| 2025-11-26 | 2025-26 | MIL 103 @ MIA 106 | MIA |
| 2025-04-05 | 2024-25 | MIL 121 @ MIA 115 | MIL |
| 2025-02-23 | 2024-25 | MIA 113 @ MIL 120 | MIL |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works