MIA
MIN
Miami Heat @ Minnesota Timberwolves
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
MINMinnesota Timberwolves
73% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 73% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Timberwolves can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Timberwolves +12.6, Heat -7.8.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 4.3 points to the Timberwolves in our ratings.
- Simulation: the Timberwolves win 7,310 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home court: the Timberwolves play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 1.8 points to the Timberwolves in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why Timberwolves may not
- Upset odds: the Heat win 2,690 of 10,000 simulations (27%). A 73% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Heat 4th (12.8), Timberwolves 16th (14.3).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Timberwolves lose by 9 or more.
- Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three can swing an NBA game by 15 points.
- Late scratches: stars can be ruled out right up to tip-off, after our last update.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | MIN -7.9 |
| Total points | n/a | 236 |
| Win chance | MIA n/a · MIN n/a | MIA 27% · MIN 73% |
| Fair moneyline | MIA +271 · MIN -271 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Timberwolves 122, Heat 114.
- 80% of simulations land between Heat by 9 and Timberwolves by 24.
Side by side
| MIA | MIN | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 3-2 |
| +1.6 12 | Net rating | +2.6 11 |
| 113.4 11 | Offensive rating | 112.7 13 |
| 111.8 14 | Defensive rating | 110.1 8 |
| 54.1% 17 | Effective FG% | 55.1% 9 |
| 54.2% 14 | Opponent eFG% | 52.8% 5 |
| 12.8 4 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.3 16 |
| 25.2% 16 | Offensive rebound % | 26.0% 13 |
| 35.9% 12 | 3-point % | 36.7% 6 |
| 106.3 1 | Pace | 103.8 10 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-21 | 2026-27 | MIN 131 @ MIA 106 | MIN |
| 2026-01-06 | 2025-26 | MIA 94 @ MIN 122 | MIN |
| 2026-01-03 | 2025-26 | MIN 125 @ MIA 115 | MIN |
| 2025-03-07 | 2024-25 | MIN 106 @ MIA 104 | MIN |
| 2024-11-10 | 2024-25 | MIA 95 @ MIN 94 | MIA |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works