MIA

Miami Heat @ New Orleans Pelicans

Any-day matchup · ratings as of Oct 30, 7:50 PM ET

NOP

Our pick

NOPNew Orleans Pelicans

53% to win

A probability, not a promise. A 53% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.

AZMango model

MIA 47%NOP 53%

No market price for this matchup yet, so there is nothing to compare against.

Advantages Why Pelicans can win

Home court: the Pelicans play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
Simulation: the Pelicans win 5,260 of 10,000 simulated games.
Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Pelicans 5th (0.22), Heat 16th (0.21).
Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Pelicans 9th (26.7%), Heat 16th (25.2%).
Strength: the Pelicans rank 5th of 30 in getting to the line (free throws per shot) (0.22).

Disadvantages Why Pelicans may not

Upset odds: the Heat win 4,740 of 10,000 simulations (47%). A 53% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Heat 12th (+1.6), Pelicans 21st (-4.2).
The Heat' offense (113.4 points per 100 possessions, 11th in the NBA) meets a Pelicans defense that ranks 23rd.
The Heat' shooting (54.1% eFG%, 17th in the NBA) meets a Pelicans defense that ranks 23rd.
Defensive rebounding (share of misses): Heat 8th (74.6%), Pelicans 27th (71.7%).

The line and our numbers

	Market	AZMango
Spread	No line yet	NOP -0.9
Total points	n/a	240.5
Win chance	MIA n/a · NOP n/a	MIA 47% · NOP 53%
Fair moneyline		MIA +111 · NOP -111

No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.

10,000 simulated games, possession by possession

Typical score: Pelicans 121, Heat 120.
80% of simulations land between Heat by 15 and Pelicans by 17.

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Side by side

MIA		NOP
1-4	Record	1-4
+1.6 12	Net rating	-4.2 21
113.4 11	Offensive rating	111.2 18
111.8 14	Defensive rating	115.4 23
54.1% 17	Effective FG%	52.8% 26
54.2% 14	Opponent eFG%	55.5% 23
12.8 4	Turnovers per 100	13.8 10
25.2% 16	Offensive rebound %	26.7% 9
35.9% 12	3-point %	34.4% 25
106.3 1	Pace	104.1 8

Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).

Last 5 meetings

Date	Season	Score	Winner
2026-02-11	2025-26	MIA 123 @ NOP 111	MIA
2026-01-04	2025-26	NOP 106 @ MIA 125	MIA
2025-04-11	2024-25	MIA 153 @ NOP 104	MIA
2025-01-01	2024-25	NOP 108 @ MIA 119	MIA
2024-03-22	2023-24	NOP 111 @ MIA 88	NOP

No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.

Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works

Player matchups

MIA

Giannis Antetokounmpo F

27.6 pts, 11.2 reb, 4.6 ast in 31.6 min, 57% FG

vs a defense ranked 23 of 30 (opponent eFG% 55.5%)

MIA

Bam Adebayo C

19.6 pts, 9.8 reb, 3.2 ast in 32 min, 44% FG

vs a defense ranked 23 of 30 (opponent eFG% 55.5%)

MIA

Andrew Wiggins F

15.2 pts, 4.8 reb, 2.6 ast in 30.3 min, 48% FG

vs a defense ranked 23 of 30 (opponent eFG% 55.5%)

NOP

Zion Williamson F

21.1 pts, 5.6 reb, 3.1 ast in 29.9 min, 60% FG

vs a defense ranked 14 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.2%)

NOP

Trey Murphy III F

21 pts, 5.6 reb, 3.7 ast in 35.3 min, 47% FG

vs a defense ranked 14 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.2%)

NOP

Dejounte Murray G

16.9 pts, 5.4 reb, 6.3 ast in 28.8 min, 48% FG

vs a defense ranked 14 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.2%)

Per-game averages, 2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons. Ordered by Game Score.

Last time they met

The Heat beat the Pelicans 123-111 on the road (2026-02-11). The difference: they won the boards 56 to 46 and they made 9 more free throws (25 to 16). Bam Adebayo led the Heat with 27 points.