MIA

Miami Heat @ New York Knicks

Any-day matchup · ratings as of Oct 30, 7:50 PM ET

NYK

Our pick

NYKNew York Knicks

72% to win

A probability, not a promise. A 72% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.

AZMango model

MIA 28%NYK 72%

No market price for this matchup yet, so there is nothing to compare against.

Advantages Why Knicks can win

Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.9 points to the Knicks in our ratings.
Simulation: the Knicks win 7,170 of 10,000 simulated games.
Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Knicks +0.2, Heat -7.8.
Home court: the Knicks play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Knicks 3rd (+7.6), Heat 12th (+1.6).

Disadvantages Why Knicks may not

Upset odds: the Heat win 2,830 of 10,000 simulations (28%). A 72% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Knicks lose by 9 or more.
Weak spot: the Knicks rank 25th of 30 in getting to the line (free throws per shot) (0.19).
Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Heat 16th (0.21), Knicks 25th (0.19).
Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three can swing an NBA game by 15 points.

The line and our numbers

	Market	AZMango
Spread	No line yet	NYK -7.4
Total points	n/a	229.9
Win chance	MIA n/a · NYK n/a	MIA 28% · NYK 72%
Fair moneyline		MIA +253 · NYK -253

No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.

10,000 simulated games, possession by possession

Typical score: Knicks 119, Heat 111.
80% of simulations land between Heat by 9 and Knicks by 24.

See live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel

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Side by side

MIA		NYK
1-4	Record	2-3
+1.6 12	Net rating	+7.6 3
113.4 11	Offensive rating	116.4 3
111.8 14	Defensive rating	108.7 4
54.1% 17	Effective FG%	55.6% 5
54.2% 14	Opponent eFG%	53.3% 7
12.8 4	Turnovers per 100	13.7 9
25.2% 16	Offensive rebound %	29.3% 5
35.9% 12	3-point %	37.5% 3
106.3 1	Pace	99.8 28

Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).

Last 5 meetings

Date	Season	Score	Winner
2025-12-21	2025-26	MIA 125 @ NYK 132	NYK
2025-11-17	2025-26	NYK 113 @ MIA 115	MIA
2025-11-14	2025-26	MIA 132 @ NYK 140	NYK
2025-10-26	2025-26	NYK 107 @ MIA 115	MIA
2025-03-17	2024-25	MIA 95 @ NYK 116	NYK

No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.

Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works

Player matchups

MIA

Giannis Antetokounmpo F

27.6 pts, 11.2 reb, 4.6 ast in 31.6 min, 57% FG

vs a defense ranked 4 of 30 (opponent eFG% 53.3%)

MIA

Bam Adebayo C

19.6 pts, 9.8 reb, 3.2 ast in 32 min, 44% FG

vs a defense ranked 4 of 30 (opponent eFG% 53.3%)

MIA

Andrew Wiggins F

15.2 pts, 4.8 reb, 2.6 ast in 30.3 min, 48% FG

vs a defense ranked 4 of 30 (opponent eFG% 53.3%)

NYK

Jalen Brunson G

26.5 pts, 3.3 reb, 6.6 ast in 35.5 min, 46% FG

vs a defense ranked 14 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.2%)

NYK

Karl-Anthony Towns C

19.3 pts, 11.7 reb, 3.4 ast in 30.8 min, 51% FG

vs a defense ranked 14 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.2%)

NYK

OG Anunoby F

17.5 pts, 5.5 reb, 2.1 ast in 33.6 min, 49% FG

vs a defense ranked 14 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.2%)

Per-game averages, 2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons. Ordered by Game Score.

Last time they met

The Knicks beat the Heat 132-125 at home (2025-12-21). The difference: they shot 67% effective field goal percentage to 57% and they made 20 threes to 17, a 9-point swing. Jalen Brunson led the Knicks with 47 points.