MIA
OKC
Miami Heat @ Oklahoma City Thunder
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
OKCOklahoma City Thunder
74% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 74% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Thunder can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 4.4 points to the Thunder in our ratings.
- Simulation: the Thunder win 7,350 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Thunder +3.6, Heat -7.8.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Thunder 1st (+10.0), Heat 12th (+1.6).
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 2.2 points to the Thunder in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why Thunder may not
- Upset odds: the Heat win 2,650 of 10,000 simulations (26%). A 74% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Thunder lose by 8 or more.
- Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Heat 16th (25.2%), Thunder 27th (23.4%).
- Weak spot: the Thunder rank 27th of 30 in offensive rebounding (share of misses) (23.4%).
- Defensive rebounding (share of misses): Heat 8th (74.6%), Thunder 17th (73.8%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | OKC -8.3 |
| Total points | n/a | 230.9 |
| Win chance | MIA n/a · OKC n/a | MIA 26% · OKC 74% |
| Fair moneyline | MIA +277 · OKC -277 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Thunder 120, Heat 111.
- 80% of simulations land between Heat by 8 and Thunder by 25.
Side by side
| MIA | OKC | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 4-1 |
| +1.6 12 | Net rating | +10.0 1 |
| 113.4 11 | Offensive rating | 115.4 4 |
| 111.8 14 | Defensive rating | 105.5 1 |
| 54.1% 17 | Effective FG% | 55.6% 6 |
| 54.2% 14 | Opponent eFG% | 51.8% 3 |
| 12.8 4 | Turnovers per 100 | 12.5 1 |
| 25.2% 16 | Offensive rebound % | 23.4% 27 |
| 35.9% 12 | 3-point % | 36.2% 10 |
| 106.3 1 | Pace | 102.2 18 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-17 | 2025-26 | OKC 120 @ MIA 122 | MIA |
| 2026-01-11 | 2025-26 | MIA 112 @ OKC 124 | OKC |
| 2025-02-12 | 2024-25 | MIA 101 @ OKC 115 | OKC |
| 2024-12-20 | 2024-25 | OKC 104 @ MIA 97 | OKC |
| 2024-03-08 | 2023-24 | MIA 100 @ OKC 107 | OKC |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works