MIA
ORL
Miami Heat @ Orlando Magic
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
ORLOrlando Magic
54% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 54% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why Magic can win
- Home court: the Magic play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Simulation: the Magic win 5,370 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Magic 1st (0.25), Heat 16th (0.21).
- History: the Magic won 5 of the last 5 meetings (rosters change, so this says little).
- Strength: the Magic rank 1st of 30 in getting to the line (free throws per shot) (0.25).
Disadvantages Why Magic may not
- Upset odds: the Heat win 4,630 of 10,000 simulations (46%). A 54% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Three-point shooting: Heat 12th (35.9%), Magic 29th (34.0%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Magic lose by 15 or more.
- Weak spot: the Magic rank 29th of 30 in three-point shooting (34.0%).
- Weak spot: the Magic rank 28th of 30 in effective shooting (eFG%) (52.4%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | ORL -1.2 |
| Total points | n/a | 235 |
| Win chance | MIA n/a · ORL n/a | MIA 46% · ORL 54% |
| Fair moneyline | MIA +116 · ORL -116 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Magic 118, Heat 117.
- 80% of simulations land between Heat by 15 and Magic by 18.
Side by side
| MIA | ORL | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 1-3 |
| +1.6 12 | Net rating | -0.2 17 |
| 113.4 11 | Offensive rating | 110.4 22 |
| 111.8 14 | Defensive rating | 110.6 9 |
| 54.1% 17 | Effective FG% | 52.4% 28 |
| 54.2% 14 | Opponent eFG% | 53.9% 9 |
| 12.8 4 | Turnovers per 100 | 13.9 11 |
| 25.2% 16 | Offensive rebound % | 24.8% 19 |
| 35.9% 12 | 3-point % | 34.0% 29 |
| 106.3 1 | Pace | 103.1 12 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-14 | 2025-26 | ORL 121 @ MIA 117 | ORL |
| 2026-01-28 | 2025-26 | ORL 133 @ MIA 124 | ORL |
| 2025-12-09 | 2025-26 | MIA 108 @ ORL 117 | ORL |
| 2025-12-05 | 2025-26 | MIA 105 @ ORL 106 | ORL |
| 2025-10-22 | 2025-26 | MIA 121 @ ORL 125 | ORL |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works