MIA
PHX
Miami Heat @ Phoenix Suns
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
PHXPhoenix Suns
56% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 56% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Suns can win
- Home court: the Suns play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Simulation: the Suns win 5,650 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Suns 4th (16.0), Heat 17th (14.2).
- Body clock: the Heat cross 2 time zones.
- Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Suns 7th (28.7%), Heat 16th (25.2%).
Disadvantages Why Suns may not
- Upset odds: the Heat win 4,350 of 10,000 simulations (44%). A 56% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Heat -7.8, Suns -14.3.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Heat 4th (12.8), Suns 19th (14.5).
- Defensive rebounding (share of misses): Heat 8th (74.6%), Suns 28th (71.4%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Suns lose by 15 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | PHX -1.7 |
| Total points | n/a | 233.6 |
| Win chance | MIA n/a · PHX n/a | MIA 44% · PHX 56% |
| Fair moneyline | MIA +130 · PHX -130 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Suns 118, Heat 116.
- 80% of simulations land between Heat by 15 and Suns by 18.
Side by side
| MIA | PHX | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 1-2 |
| +1.6 12 | Net rating | +0.2 16 |
| 113.4 11 | Offensive rating | 111.8 17 |
| 111.8 14 | Defensive rating | 111.6 13 |
| 54.1% 17 | Effective FG% | 53.7% 19 |
| 54.2% 14 | Opponent eFG% | 54.3% 16 |
| 12.8 4 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.5 19 |
| 25.2% 16 | Offensive rebound % | 28.7% 7 |
| 35.9% 12 | 3-point % | 35.9% 13 |
| 106.3 1 | Pace | 100.3 26 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-25 | 2025-26 | MIA 111 @ PHX 102 | MIA |
| 2026-01-13 | 2025-26 | PHX 121 @ MIA 127 | MIA |
| 2024-12-07 | 2024-25 | PHX 111 @ MIA 121 | MIA |
| 2024-11-06 | 2024-25 | MIA 112 @ PHX 115 | PHX |
| 2024-01-29 | 2023-24 | PHX 118 @ MIA 105 | PHX |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works