MIA
POR
Miami Heat @ Portland Trail Blazers
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
PORPortland Trail Blazers
64% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 64% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Trail Blazers can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Trail Blazers +8.8, Heat -7.8.
- Simulation: the Trail Blazers win 6,410 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.1 points to the Trail Blazers in our ratings.
- Home court: the Trail Blazers play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 1.0 points to the Trail Blazers in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why Trail Blazers may not
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Heat 4th (12.8), Trail Blazers 30th (16.3).
- Upset odds: the Heat win 3,590 of 10,000 simulations (36%). A 64% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Heat 12th (+1.6), Trail Blazers 18th (-0.5).
- Three-point shooting: Heat 12th (35.9%), Trail Blazers 28th (34.1%).
- Defensive rebounding (share of misses): Heat 8th (74.6%), Trail Blazers 24th (72.9%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | POR -4.7 |
| Total points | n/a | 236.4 |
| Win chance | MIA n/a · POR n/a | MIA 36% · POR 64% |
| Fair moneyline | MIA +178 · POR -178 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Trail Blazers 121, Heat 116.
- 80% of simulations land between Heat by 12 and Trail Blazers by 21.
Side by side
| MIA | POR | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 3-1 |
| +1.6 12 | Net rating | -0.5 18 |
| 113.4 11 | Offensive rating | 110.9 21 |
| 111.8 14 | Defensive rating | 111.4 12 |
| 54.1% 17 | Effective FG% | 53.2% 24 |
| 54.2% 14 | Opponent eFG% | 54.1% 12 |
| 12.8 4 | Turnovers per 100 | 16.3 30 |
| 25.2% 16 | Offensive rebound % | 30.9% 2 |
| 35.9% 12 | 3-point % | 34.1% 28 |
| 106.3 1 | Pace | 103.7 11 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-22 | 2025-26 | MIA 110 @ POR 127 | POR |
| 2025-11-08 | 2025-26 | POR 131 @ MIA 136 | MIA |
| 2025-01-21 | 2024-25 | POR 116 @ MIA 107 | POR |
| 2025-01-11 | 2024-25 | MIA 119 @ POR 98 | MIA |
| 2024-03-29 | 2023-24 | POR 82 @ MIA 142 | MIA |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works