MIA
SAC
Miami Heat @ Sacramento Kings
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
MIAMiami Heat
64% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 64% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Heat can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 4.0 points to the Heat in our ratings.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Heat 12th (+1.6), Kings 29th (-10.1).
- The Heat' offense (113.4 points per 100 possessions, 11th in the NBA) meets a Kings defense that ranks 28th.
- Simulation: the Heat win 6,370 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Heat -7.8, Kings -16.6.
Disadvantages Why Heat may not
- Home court: the Kings play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Upset odds: the Kings win 3,630 of 10,000 simulations (36%). A 64% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Heat lose by 12 or more.
- Body clock: the Heat cross 3 time zones.
- Weak spot: the Heat rank 22nd of 30 in points allowed per game (118.8).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | MIA -4.4 |
| Total points | n/a | 238.2 |
| Win chance | MIA n/a · SAC n/a | MIA 64% · SAC 36% |
| Fair moneyline | MIA -175 · SAC +175 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Kings 117, Heat 122.
- 80% of simulations land between Heat by 21 and Kings by 12.
Side by side
| MIA | SAC | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 0-5 |
| +1.6 12 | Net rating | -10.1 29 |
| 113.4 11 | Offensive rating | 108.3 28 |
| 111.8 14 | Defensive rating | 118.5 28 |
| 54.1% 17 | Effective FG% | 52.4% 29 |
| 54.2% 14 | Opponent eFG% | 57.3% 29 |
| 12.8 4 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.1 14 |
| 25.2% 16 | Offensive rebound % | 25.8% 14 |
| 35.9% 12 | 3-point % | 33.8% 30 |
| 106.3 1 | Pace | 102.4 16 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-20 | 2025-26 | MIA 130 @ SAC 117 | MIA |
| 2025-12-06 | 2025-26 | SAC 127 @ MIA 111 | SAC |
| 2025-01-06 | 2024-25 | MIA 118 @ SAC 123 | SAC |
| 2024-11-04 | 2024-25 | SAC 111 @ MIA 110 | SAC |
| 2024-02-26 | 2023-24 | MIA 121 @ SAC 110 | MIA |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works