MIA

Miami Heat @ San Antonio Spurs

Any-day matchup · ratings as of Oct 30, 7:50 PM ET

SAS

Our pick

SASSan Antonio Spurs

77% to win

A probability, not a promise. A 77% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.

AZMango model

MIA 23%SAS 77%

No market price for this matchup yet, so there is nothing to compare against.

Advantages Why Spurs can win

Recent scoring margins: worth about 5.3 points to the Spurs in our ratings.
Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Spurs +6.6, Heat -7.8.
Simulation: the Spurs win 7,670 of 10,000 simulated games.
Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 2.5 points to the Spurs in our ratings.
Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Spurs 2nd (+7.7), Heat 12th (+1.6).

Disadvantages Why Spurs may not

Upset odds: the Heat win 2,330 of 10,000 simulations (23%). A 77% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Spurs lose by 7 or more.
Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Heat 17th (14.2), Spurs 25th (13.0).
Weak spot: the Spurs rank 25th of 30 in turnovers forced per 100 possessions (13.0).
Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three can swing an NBA game by 15 points.

The line and our numbers

	Market	AZMango
Spread	No line yet	SAS -9.5
Total points	n/a	234.1
Win chance	MIA n/a · SAS n/a	MIA 23% · SAS 77%
Fair moneyline		MIA +329 · SAS -329

No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.

10,000 simulated games, possession by possession

Typical score: Spurs 122, Heat 112.
80% of simulations land between Heat by 7 and Spurs by 26.

See live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel

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Side by side

MIA		SAS
1-4	Record	3-2
+1.6 12	Net rating	+7.7 2
113.4 11	Offensive rating	115.2 5
111.8 14	Defensive rating	107.5 3
54.1% 17	Effective FG%	55.1% 8
54.2% 14	Opponent eFG%	51.4% 2
12.8 4	Turnovers per 100	13.3 6
25.2% 16	Offensive rebound %	26.4% 10
35.9% 12	3-point %	35.8% 14
106.3 1	Pace	102.5 15

Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).

Last 5 meetings

Date	Season	Score	Winner
2026-03-23	2025-26	SAS 136 @ MIA 111	SAS
2025-10-30	2025-26	MIA 101 @ SAS 107	SAS
2025-02-01	2024-25	MIA 105 @ SAS 103	MIA
2025-01-19	2024-25	SAS 107 @ MIA 128	MIA
2024-02-07	2023-24	SAS 104 @ MIA 116	MIA

No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.

Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works

Player matchups

MIA

Giannis Antetokounmpo F

27.6 pts, 11.2 reb, 4.6 ast in 31.6 min, 57% FG

vs a defense ranked 3 of 30 (opponent eFG% 51.4%)

MIA

Bam Adebayo C

19.6 pts, 9.8 reb, 3.2 ast in 32 min, 44% FG

vs a defense ranked 3 of 30 (opponent eFG% 51.4%)

MIA

Andrew Wiggins F

15.2 pts, 4.8 reb, 2.6 ast in 30.3 min, 48% FG

vs a defense ranked 3 of 30 (opponent eFG% 51.4%)

SAS

Victor Wembanyama F

24.6 pts, 11.3 reb, 3 ast in 30.5 min, 50% FG

vs a defense ranked 14 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.2%)

SAS

De'Aaron Fox G

17.7 pts, 3.8 reb, 6.2 ast in 31.6 min, 47% FG

vs a defense ranked 14 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.2%)

SAS

Stephon Castle G

17 pts, 5.3 reb, 7 ast in 30.8 min, 46% FG

vs a defense ranked 14 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.2%)

Per-game averages, 2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons. Ordered by Game Score.

Last time they met

The Spurs beat the Heat 136-111 on the road (2026-03-23). The difference: they won the boards 62 to 38 and they shot 55% effective field goal percentage to 48%. Victor Wembanyama led the Spurs with 26 points.